Aotearoa Summary. 5 March 2017 - 12 March 2017

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Magnitude 6 risk areas are Culverden, Cheviot, Hanmer, South Awatere Valley, Seaward Kaikouras, Cape Campbell, Offshore Hawkes Bay.
Magnitude 5 risk areas are Fiordland, Ward, Central Taranaki Bight, Eketahuna, Dannevirke, Waipukurau, Porangahau.
Magnitude 4 risk areas are Mount Cook, Arthurs Pass, Northern Cook Strait, Southern Kahurangi, Taumarunui, Tokoroa, Whakatane, East Cape, Tauranga, Wairoa, Mahia.
Infrequent quakes 2-4 March may give way to a more active day
Volcanoes quiet.
The period is likely to continue to 8 March.

Update. 6 March 11.00am
Local quakes were under Mag 4 on 5 March.
All risk locations are unchanged.
Western risk locations are showing high signal.
An isolated big quake is possible.
Southwest Pacific is higher risk.
The period will be extended.

Update. 7 March 12.00am
6 March.
Mid Awatere Valley 3.9 2.14am
Northern Cook Strait 3.7 10.23am
The forecast period is extended to 7 March.
Quakes were under Mag 4 on 6 March with a westward trend, justifying the more westerly risk locations.
Lack of quakes is no indication the quake period has ended.
Auroral activity is high, infrequent big quakes are possible next two days.
Be careful.

Update. 8 March 12.00am.
7 March.
South of Cape Kidanppers 3.8 12.14am
Southwest of Broken River 4.1 11.09am
8 March.
East Cape 5.0 12.03am
The 2 March outlook for quakes peaking on 8 March is justified.
East Cape 5.0 occurred as this update was being processed.
Plenty of auroral activity over several days clearly indicates big action is possible.
A big New Zealand, Solomon Islands quake is possible.
Be careful.
The forecast period may be extended another day.

Update. 8 March 11.30pm
The forecast period is extended to 9 March.
Seismic tremor increased along with the 12.03am Northeast of East Cape 5.0 but no Mag 4 quakes.
Quakes seem to be lagging behind the solar conditions driving them so the possibility for a big quake remains.
The quake period is closing.

Update. 9 March 11.30pm
West of Fiordland 3.7 4.19am
Northeast of East Cape 3.7 5.47am
Cheviot 4.1 9.51am
Northwest of East Cape 4.5 2.16pm
Cheviot 4.0 9.11pm
The forecast period is extended to 10 March.
Solar quake driving conditions picked up today, one day later than expected.
Local quakes were very busy.
Solar conditions are easing more slowly than anticipated and have plenty of energy yet to drive more quakes.
Risk locations and magnitudes remain unchanged.
A big local quake is possible.
Minor steam eruption at White Island is possible.
The forecast period is very volcanic after more Pacific eruptions.

Summary.
6 March.
Mid Awatere Valley 3.9 2.14am
Northern Cook Strait 3.7 10.23am
7 March.
South of Cape Kidanppers 3.8 12.14am
Southwest of Broken River 4.1 11.09am
8 March.
East Cape 5.0 12.03am
9 March.
West of Fiordland 3.7 4.19am
Northeast of East Cape 3.7 5.47am
Cheviot 4.1 9.51am
Northwest of East Cape 4.5 2.16pm
Cheviot 4.0 9.11pm
10 March.
Cheviot 4.3 5.00am
Ward 4.1 6.25pm
Kaikoura 4.5 7.45pm
11 March.
South Awatere Valley 4.9 6.58pm
SW of Taumarunui 4.0 11.49pm
12 March.
Doubtful Sound 4.7 10.54am
Opotiki 4.3 10.23pm
Poarngahau 4.5 11.14pm
The 5-12 March quake period was ominously long.
The forecast for quakes to peak on 8 March was justified.
The quake period has continued for another four days, longer than expected.
Solar conditions are slowly falling toward the threshold for driving quakes..
Quakes are still coming at the time of this posting.
An isolated late quake is possible 13 March before quakes fade away. Volcanic Plateau seems higher risk.
The 11 March South Awatere Valley 4.9 was an excellent location success and will keep the sceptics guessing.
The outlook for March/April is for quakes and eruptions to increase.
Aurora intensify weather as well as quakes.
Severe flooding 10-12 March in Auckland, Northland and Coromadel coincided with the strongest part of the of the period.






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