Aotearoa Earthquake and Volcano Forecast Service

Aotearoa Summary. 22 March 2017 - 27 March 2017

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Magnitude 5 risk areas are Southwest of Wanganui, Cape Campbell, Ward, Waima River, Cheviot, Culverden.
Magnitude 4 risk areas are Northwest Arm Te Anau, South of Haast, Seaward Kaikouras, Kaikoura, Eketahuna, Dannevirke, Porangahau, Waipukurau, South of Wairoa, Wairoa, East Cape, Opotiki.
Moderate quake driving conditions have arrived a day earlier than the long range outlook for 23 March.
Volcanoes quiet.
The period is likely to be extended.

Update. 22 March, 11.30pm
21 March.
Cape Campbell 4.4 11.58pm
22 March.
East of East Cape 4.5 12.58am
The forecast period is extended to 23 March.
The Cape Campbell 4.4 and East Cape 4.5 came soon after this forecast was posted but quakes have been sparse since.
Solar quake driving conditions are only moderate.
Pressure is building slowly so infrequent moderate quakes seem possible on 23 March.
A peak may occur 25 March.
Volcanoes quiet.

Update. 24 March 12.00am
23 March.
Seddon 4.1 1.17am
Paekakariki 4.8 8.51pm
The Paekakariki 4.8 was widely felt from Blenheim, Wellington to Wanganui and further.
Steady quake driving conditions matched the forecast profile.
Infrequent moderate quakes seem likely again on 24 March.
A peak is still expected on 25 March.
Another peak seems likely late 28 March.

Update. 24 March 11.00pm
Local and Pacific quakes were quiet as solar conditions weakened.
Solar conditions could strengthen on 25 March.
Confidence = low.

Summary.
21 March.
Cape Campbell 4.4 11.58pm
22 March.
East of East Cape 4.5 12.58am
23 March.
Seddon 4.1 1.17am
Paekakariki 4.8 8.51pm
26 March.
Hawera 4.1 2.49am
27 March.
South of Wanganui 4.3 12.17am
Moderate solar quake driving conditions arrived on cue.
Steady Mag 4 activity followed.
Solar conditions weakened despite the forecast for a peak on 25 March.
The forecast became low confidence, the forecasters left wondering if there was enough energy to drive quakes.
Quakes arrived early 26 March, justifying the difficult South of Wanganui Mag 5 risk location.
The forecast had obvious mistakes but the seat of action during the period was Taranaki Bight.