Aotearoa Summary. 5 April 2017 - 9 April 2017

Click to Enlarge
Magnitude 6 risk areas are Culverden, Cheviot, Seaward Kaikouras, Cape Campbell, North of Cape Campbell.
Magnitude 5 risk areas are Northern Cook Strait, Southwest of Wanganui, South of Taranaki.
Magnitude 4 risk areas are Fiordland, Ward, Waima River, Tapuaenuku, Wellington, Eketahuna, Dannevirke, Waipukurau, Porangahau, Northern Hawkes Bay, Wairoa, East Cape, Opotiki, Rotorua, Murupara, Tokoroa, Taupo, Turangi, Taumarunui.
Infrequent quakes are likely to continue but magnitude risk is rising as solar conditions continue building pressure.
A peak is possible on 7 April.

Update. 5 April 10.00pm
The forecast period is extended to 6 April.
Local quakes were below Mag 4 today as solar quake driving conditions weakened.
Conditions are still capable of strengthening again next two days as the end of the extended forecast period approaches.
Quakes are likely to be infrequent but Mag 6 possible as a peak on 7 April approaches.
Quakes are then likely to fade away for a week.

Update. 7 April 12.00pm
6 April.
White Island 3.9 4.12am
North of Lake Grassmere 5.0 9.42pm
The North of Grassmere 5.0 gave Blenheim a good shaking and was widely felt.
Otherwise quakes were infrequent.
Another burst of solar quake driving conditions may occur on 7 April but confidence is low.
The forecast period is extended to 7 April.
All Magnitudes and risk locations are unchanged.
Quakes are likely to fade away on 8 April.

Update. 8 April. 12.00am
7 April.
Lower Clarence River 4.6 7.23pm
Gisborne 3.9 11.14pm
Local quakes were active again today.
The 5 April outlook for a quake peak on 7 April is justified.
Solar conditions are marginal for quakes but late quakes seem possible next day before fading away.
The forecast period is extended to 8 April.
Quakes are likely to be infrequent.javascript:;
Magnitudes and risk locations are unchanged.

Update. 9 April 10.00am
8 April.
Northeast of Taihape 3.9 10.02pm
Cape Campbell 4.2 10.03pm
9 April.
Southwest of Taumarunui 4.6 1.18am
The forecast period is extended to 9 April.
Solar quake driving conditions picked up on 7 April and are continuing today.
Solid quake activity since 7 April is continuing today.
Solar conditions should ease later today but more quakes are possible until then.
Taihape is added to Mag 4 risk areas.
Central North Island, Taihape, Taranaki Bight are higher risk for more Mag 5 activity.
Volcanoes quiet.
No Pacific forecast is offered today.

Update. 10 April 10.30am
9 April.
Southwest of Taumarunui 4.6 1.18am
Cape Palliser 4.8 10.57pm
Cook Strait/30km southwest of Wellington 4.5 11.30pm
Quakes were widely felt around Cook Strait as the 7 April quake peak continued for another day.
Conditions are easing today, one day later than anticipated, a forecast mistake.
An isolated late quake is possible today as the quake period closes and quakes fade away for several days.

Summary.
6 April.
White Island 3.9 4.12am
North of Lake Grassmere 5.0 9.42pm
7 April.
Lower Clarence River 4.6 7.23pm
Gisborne 3.9 11.14pm
8 April.
Northeast of Taihape 3.9 10.02pm
Cape Campbell 4.2 10.03pm
9 April.
Southwest of Taumarunui 4.6 1.18am
Cape Palliser 4.8 10.57pm
Cook Strait/30km southwest of Wellington 4.5 11.30pm
10 April.
Hawera 3.6 12.30pm
Central Taranaki Bight 3.5 5.38pm
11 April.
Northeast of East Cape 4.1 9.01pm
12 April.
Offshore Kaikoura 4.1 4.08am

The forecast for a quake peak on 7 April worked.
The North of Grassmere 5.0 began three days of steady Cook Strait quakes, a day longer than anticipated.
Quakes were fading on 10 April, Taranaki Bight was active and scene of the biggest quakes.
Quakes went mostly quiet until the new forecast period on 15 April.

Content © Roary Arbon 2013 - 2016
Website Design by Go Tech.