Aotearoa Earthquake and Volcano Forecast Service

Aotearoa Summary. 29 April 2017 - 1 May 2017

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Magnitude 5 risk areas are Culverden, Cheviot, Kaikoura, Seaward Kaikouras, Ward, Cape Campbell, North of Cape Campbell.
Magnitude 4 risk areas are Lake Te Anau, Breaksea Sound, Doubtful Sound, Mount Cook, Upper Taramakau River, Lower Clarence, Cape Palliser, Northern Cook Strait, Central Taranaki Bight, South of Wanganui, Eketahuna, Dannevirke, Waipukurau, Wairoa, East Cape, Opotiki, Rotorua, Urewera, Taupo.
This forecast is posted after the 29 April 7.55am Kaikoura 4.0
Forecast areas are the same as the 24-25 April forecast risk areas, magnitude risks are lower.
Summaries for 24-25 April will be posted tonight, start of the wider 24-30 April quake period.
Quakes usually arrive at the beginning and end of wider quake periods with intermittent activity in between.
The 24-30 April quake period has been very quiet in New Zealand but two big quakes in the Pacific.
Local quakes are likely to be infrequent on 29-30 April.

Update. 30 April 11.30pm
The forecast period is extended to 1 May.
Local and Pacific quakes were subdued today.
Solar quake driving conditions are steadily weakening as the end of the wider 24 April- 1 May quake period closes.
A late quake on 1 May seems possible even though quakes are already subdued.

Update. 1 May 9.30am
Northern Hawkes Bay 4.3 3.42am
South of Wanganui 4.0 4.37am
Late quakes have arrived as the end of the wider 24 April -1 May period approaches.
Solar conditions continued to fade overnight.

Update. 2 May 8.30am
1 May.
Doubtful Sound 4.4 12.11pm
Northeast of White Island 4.4 8.28pm
The decision to extend the forecast period despite fading solar conditions is justified.
Quakes were too quiet for the conditions earlier in the period...now they have come.
An isolated late quake still seems possible before conditions fade away.

Summary.
29 April.
Kaikoura 4.0 7.55am
1 May.
Northern Hawkes Bay 4.3 3.42am
South of Wanganui 4.0 4.37am
Doubtful Sound 4.4 12.11pm
Northeast of White Island 4.4 8.28pm
The Kaikoura 4.0 marked the tailend of the wider 24 April-1 May quake period.
A forecast posted soon after the Kaikoura 4.0 picked up some interesting locations.
The 24 April- 1 May quake period was slightly quieter than expected in New Zealand although the Pacific became very active.
Quakes faded away 2 April.
A new quake period 6 May is likely to be short and may only affect equatorial areas.
The 29 April Kaikoura 4.0 is not marked on the summary map.