Aotearoa Summary. 12 May 2017 - 14 May 2017

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Aotearoa Forecast. 16 May 2017

Magnitude 5 risk area is Northern Cook Strait/East of Brothers.
Magnitude 4 risk areas are Lake Te Anau, Culverden, Cheviot, Kaikoura, Seaward Kaikouras, Ward, Cape Campbell, South of Wellington, Wellington, South of Wanganui, Southwest of Wanganui, Taumarunui, Northern Hawkes Bay, Opotiki, East Cape.
Possibility minor steam eruption White Island.
Pacific conditions are unsettled, the three month Mag 6 quake drought has ended so an isolated local quake is possible 12-15 May.

Summary.
12 May.
Northwest of East Cape 3.9 7.59pm
13 May.
Northeast of East Cape 4.4 3.32am
South of Kermadecs 4.6 2.15pm
Quakes came four days earlier than the forecast, a forecast mistake.
The previous forecast period was still active when the forecast was made and quakes fitted onto the end of the period.
The big Pacific quake spell took a day or two longer than expected to settle down.
An undersea eruption in the Northern Kermadecs or Tonga may have occurred but if it just a steam eruption there may be little evidence at the ocean surface. Confirmation of an eruption is unlikely, bad weather in the area will make visual confirmation difficult.
Plenty of quake action north of New Zealand, regardless of any eruptions.
A new quake and possibly volcanic period begins early 17 May and may last for several days.

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