Aotearoa Earthquake and Volcano Forecast Service

Aotearoa Summary. 16 May 2017 - 20 May 2017

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Magnitude 5 risk area is Northern Cook Strait/East of Brothers.
Magnitude 4 risk areas are Doubtful Sound, Breaksea Sound, Lake Te Anau, Methven, Southwest of Christchurch, Christchurch, Culverden, Kaikoura, Seaward Kaikouras, Ward, Seddon, Cape Campbell, Southwest of Wellington, Wellington, Waipukurau, Dannevirke, Central Taranaki Bight, South of Wanganui, Northern Hawkes Bay, Tokoroa, Rotorua, Opotiki, East Cape.
Volcanoes quiet.
The forecast period will be extended.

Update. 17 May 6.30pm
17 May. White Island 3.5 1.32am
The forecast period is extended to 18 May.
Taumarunui, Southern Taranaki are added to Mag 4 risk areas.
The period began with the New Britain 6.2 but was locally quiet.
Solar conditions went quiet after an intial burst but are increasing again tonight.
Christchurch has received some Mag 2 activity at Rolleston and further west.
Volcanoes quiet.

Update. 18 May 11.30pm
18 May.
Whakatane 3.5 10.03am
Northeast of East Cape 3.8 10.07am
Northeast of Opotiki 3.5 5.33pm
The forecast period is extended to 19 May.
A Mag 3 Bay of Plenty swarm gave some indication that local and Pacific conditions are very volcanic.
Solar conditions are only slowly rising and sluggish.
East Cape, Bay of Plenty and Volcanic Plateau could be Mag 4 hotspots next few days ahead of a quake or volcanic peak late on 21 May.

Update. 20 May 12.30am
19 May.
Upper Hokitika River 4.0 2.57am
Waipukurau 4.0 6.24pm
The period is extended to 20 May.
Quake activity just reached the Mag 4 forecast threshold under the influence of very moderate solar conditions.
Solar conditions have jumped again as this forecast is posted but may not last. Very tricky forecast conditions.
Pacific conditions are very volcanic so local quakes may remain subdued. No sign of any action at White Island.
Strong solar conditions are set to arrive late on 21 May so local quakes may increase along with global volcanic activity.
Forecast confidence=low.

Summary.
17 May.
White Island 3.5 1.32am
18 May.
Whakatane 3.5 10.03am
Northeast of East Cape 3.8 10.07am
Northeast of Opotiki 3.5 5.33pm
19 May.
Upper Hokitika River 4.0 2.57am
Waipukurau 4.0 6.24pm
20 May.
Cheviot 3.7 4.37am
Solar conditions hovered just around the quake threshold during the forecast period.
The biggest quakes are listed and fell mostly within the risk locations.
The forecasters were happy to extract anything from the forecast, solar conditions were very tricky and the Pacific went volcanic.