Aotearoa Summary. 24 May 2017 - 31 May 2017

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Magnitude 5 risk areas are Culverden, Cheviot, Kaikoura, Seaward Kaikouras, Tapuaenuku, Waima River, Ward, Cape Campbell, Seddon, Southeast of Brothers.
Magnitude 4 risk areas are Breaksea Sound, Doubtful Sound, Lake Te Anau, Lower Cascade River, Upper Hokitika River, Methven, Rolleston, Tapawera, Lower Clarence, Southwest of Wellington, Wellington, Southwest of Wanganui, South of Wanganui, South Taranaki, East of Taihape, Eketahuna, Dannevirke, Waipukurau, Opotiki, East Cape, Northeast of East Cape.
Lunar influence may modulate quakes around low tide.
Low Tide Cook Strait = 9.00am, 9.00pm.
Volcanoes quiet.
The forecast period is likely to be extended.

Update. 24 May 10.00pm
24 May.
Breaksea Sound 3.7 11.41am
South of Taranaki 3.7 9.52pm
The forecast period is extended to 25 May.
Local quakes were under Mag 4 today on a slow solar buildup trend.
Biggest quakes gave good location results.
Solar conditions look set to continue right through a strong lunar period 26-27 May.
Lunar conditions without solar driving conditions don't usually come to much but together a big modulation can occur as during the full moon 14 November 2016 Culverden 7.8.
Quake locations tend to spread out during lunar modulation periods.
The 10 November 2016 forecast was chasing activity in two areas, Taranaki and Kaikoura/Cape Campbell but pulled back in Kaikoura by 12-13 November, datasets were showing potential for big action in two areas at once which seemed totally unlikely. In the end Taranaki went quiet and Kaikoura got busier.
The 26 May peak is not a full moon perigee but a new moon perigee. Look high into the sky at midday and the moon will be there.

Update. 26 May 2.30am
25 May.
Ward 3.7 7.50am
South of Kermadecs 4.2 9.21am
Southwest of Hawera 3.7 9.52am
Eketahuna 4.1 12.19pm
The forecast period is extended to 26 May.
Lower Clarence is added to Mag 5 risk areas.
North of D'Urville Island is added to Mag 4 risk areas.
Steady quake activity in all areas on 25 May looks set to continue.
Quakes are likely to be infrequent on 26 May.
An isolated big quake is possible. Be careful.
Lunar modulation may centre quakes around low tide.
Low tide Kaikoura = 10.40am, 11.15pm
Lunar perigee = 357209km 1.24pm NZST.
New Moon = 7.46am NZST.
Lunar Declination = +19 21 28/1136 NZST
The forecast period is likely to be extended.

Update. 27 May 11.45am
26 May.
South of Kermadec Islands 4.4 6.32am
Turangi quake swarm.
27 May.
North of D'Urville Island 3.8 1.22am
Taumarunui, Taupo, Tokoroa, Urewera are added to Mag 4 risk areas.
The forecast period is extended to 27 May.
The Turangi quake swarm reached Mag 3.4 before easing back today as solar conditions went flat.
The addition of North of D'Urville Island to Mag 4 risk areas is justified.
Solar conditions may pick up again late 27 May or early 28 May for a brief period.
Lunar modulation is strongest again today at low tide so the arrival of any new solar conditions late in the day could bring an isolated big quake.
Low tide Kaikoura = 12pm, 12am.

Update. 28 May 12.30pm
27 May.
Urewera 3.5 11.36pm
The forecast period is extended to 28 May.
The biggest quake since the last update has come in a new risk area.
Quakes generally eased as solar conditions faded.
Strong new solar conditions have arrived on cue, early 28 May.
Lunar conditions are still very strong today at low tide.
An isolated big quake is possible.
Risk locations and magnitudes are unchanged, including Canterbury Plains.
Low tide Kaikoura = 1pm, 1am.

Update. 28 May 8.30pm
28 May.
North of Farewell Spit 4.3 2.42pm
Tokoroa 4.0 3.23pm
The forecast period is extended to 29 May.
The addition of Tokoroa to Mag 4 risk areas is justified.
More quakes today in Taranaki Bight, the area is very busy.
The Turangi quake swarm rumbled on today but never got to Mag 3.
Strong solar conditions arrived on cue but look like lasting into 29 May.
Lunar modulation is weakening slightly on 29 May.
An isolated big quake is possible along with the strong solar wind.
Volcanoes quiet.
Be careful.

Update. 29 May 3.45pm
29 May.
15km Northeast of Methven 2.5 7.21am
West of Rolleston 2.0 1.11pm
Southern Fiordland/Lake Poteriteri 3.5 9.37am
South of Taranaki is added to Mag 5 risk areas.
Local and Pacific quakes have been ominously absent since the big solar storm arrived early on 28 May.
Canterbury Plains received a very small quake swarm.
Solar quake driving conditions switched off early today and quakes faded.
Solar conditions may switch on again in the next few hours.

Update. 30 May 12.00am
Quakes were under Mag 4 on 29 May.
The forecast period is extended to 30 May.
Solar conditions were strong but weren't connecting, the Earth's magnetic field repelled the storm.
Solar conditions reconnected tonight, quakes will pick up so long as they stay connected.
Lunar influence is weakening and increasingly unlikely to modulate quakes.
The forecast period is ending soon.

Update. 30 May 10.00pm
Local quakes were under Mag 4 on 30 May.
The period is extended to 31 May.
Solar conditions connected late on 29 May and the Sulawesi 6.8 soon followed but nothing came to New Zealand.
The Turangi quake swarm continued today.
Solar conditions are weakening today but occasionally strengthening for brief periods.
A late isolated quake is possible before the period ends.
The original forecast map is retained for continuity.
Taranaki Bight, Culverden, Hanmer, Seaward Kaikouras, Cape Campbell are higher risk locations.
Many Mag 4 risk locations are now becoming inactive.

Update. 1 June 2.00pm
31 May.
Sheffield 2.9 12.02pm
Northwest of East Cape 4.0 7.17pm
1 June.
Whakatane 3.8 1.35pm
The forecast period has ended.

Summary.
24 May.
Breaksea Sound 3.7 11.41am
South of Taranaki 3.7 9.52pm
25 May.
Ward 3.7 7.50am
South of Kermadecs 4.2 9.21am
Southwest of Hawera 3.7 9.52am
Eketahuna 4.1 12.19pm
26 May.
South of Kermadec Islands 4.4 6.32am
Turangi quake swarm.
27 May.
North of D'Urville Island 3.8 1.22am
Urewera 3.5 11.36pm
28 May.
North of Farewell Spit 4.3 2.42pm
Tokoroa 4.0 3.23pm
29 May.
15km Northeast of Methven 2.5 7.21am
West of Rolleston 2.0 1.11pm
Southern Fiordland/Lake Poteriteri 3.5 9.37am
31 May.
Sheffield 2.9 12.02pm
Northwest of East Cape 4.0 7.17pm
1 June.
Whakatane 3.8 1.35pm
This was a long and difficult period to forecast.
The new moon perigee had no real effect in New Zealand other than the spreading out of quake locations, highlighting the difficulty of adding lunar effects to an already cluttered solar dataset.
Quakes to the north and south of New Zealand early in the period promised more action later on.
A small Canterbury Plains quake swarm was more at Darfield than Christchurch.
A strong quake swarm at Turangi persisted right through the period.
Excellent location success with the addition of Tokoroa, Urewera and Taranaki Bight risk areas could be a location breakthrough in future forecasts.
The 28 May solar storm never affected New Zealand but created the Sulawesi 6.8, major electrical storms and power outages.
Postings on Facebook/Roary Arbon followed the action.
A new quake period begins early 4 June.










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