Pacific Summary. 27 May 2017 - 31 May 2017

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Magnitude 6 risk areas are Auckland Island, New Zealand, South of Kermadec Islands, Kermadec Islands, Northern Tonga, Northern Vanuatu, Solomon Islands, East Timor, South Banda Sea, Java, Northern Sumatra, Southern Philippines, North of Philippines, Taiwan, Aleutian Islands, Southern Mexico, El Salvador.
Volcanic activity may increase.
Manam, Sinabung, Sakurajima, Bogoslof, Popocatepetl, Etna, Piton de la Fournaise.
Forecast confidence=low.
Pacific quakes have been subdued last few days.
Pacific volcanoes have been moderately active.
A short late burst of solar quake driving conditions may arrive early 28 May.
Lunar modulators are strong so an isolated big quake or eruption seems possible.
Piton de la Fournaise is inflating, Etna has resumed mild stromolian activity but no news of any eruptions.

Update. 28 May 1.00pm
Inland Valparaiso, Southern Chile, Western Turkey are added to Mag 6 risk areas.
Strong solar quake driving conditions arrived early on 28 May.
The period is likely to remain volcanic.
An isolated big quake is possible.
Possibility Mag 7 Pacific. Mag 7 confidence=low.
No news from Piton de la Fournaise or Etna.

Update. 28 May 8.00pm
28 May.
Aleutian Islands 5.5, 5.5
The forecast period is extended to 29 May.
Southeastern Honshu is added to Mag 6 risk areas.
Aleutians are the biggest quakes so far in the period.
Western Turkey is Mag 3/4 swarming.
The arrival of strong solar quake driving conditions early on 28 May has met the forecast profile.
The outlook for a short solar burst is a forecast mistake, conditions look set to continue for another day.
No major eruptions are reported but data is slow on a Sunday.

Update. 30 May 11.30pm
29 May.
Eruption Bogoslof, Shiveluch, Sakurajima.
30 May.
Sulawesi 6.8
Inland Valparaiso 5.8
Eruption Sinabung.
The forecast period is extended to 31 May.
Southwest of Anchorage is added to Mag 6 risk areas.
Alaska, Guadalcanal, Santa Cruz Islands are higher risk.
The Mag 7 Pacific risk is justified.
Sulawesi 6.8 was the first Pacific Mag 6 for two weeks.
The forecast was heavily weighted along the Indonesian Arc and Philippines but the actual location was frustratingly out of reach.
The Inland Valparaiso 5.8 was a good location success.
Volcanoes have continued to be very active.
Bogoslof has let off a big explosion after a couple of months quiet.
Solar conditions are weakening as the end of the period approaches but late action is possible.
More weather and quake info at Facebook/Roary Arbon

Update. 1 June 8.00pm
1 June.
Eruption Bogoslof, Sakurajima.
The forecast period has ended for quakes but a late eruption is possible...volcanic activity tends to come very late in a forecast period.

29 May.
Eruption Bogoslof, Shiveluch, Sakurajima.
30 May.
Sulawesi 6.8
Inland Valparaiso 5.8
Eruption Sinabung.
1 June.
Eruption Bogoslof, Sakurajima.
Eruptions dominated the period with one exception.
A big eruption into the stratosphere at Bogoslof marked a return to activity after a two month quiet period at the volcano.
The Pacific three month volcanic trend continues and may continue for years as the deep solar low settles in.
Many Pacific volcanoes are now in a constant state of low eruption and not reported by this Service.
The Sulawesi 6.8 was a big timing and magnitude success. The forecast was all over Indonesia and Philippines but frustratingly couldn't pick out an exact location.
The quake was significantly the first Pacific Mag 6 in two weeks and nearly reached the low confidence Mag 7 threshold.
The addition of Inland Valparaiso to risk locations was also a significant location success.
The Sulawesi 6.8 arrived along with the big 28 May solar storm and will keep the sceptics guessing. Aurora were sighted as far south as California.
Many power grid failures were recorded thanks to the aurora...including the British Airways computer failure.
Cyclone Mora powered up as it crossed Sri Lanka and delivered a deluge that drowned many people.
Lingering lunar effects may also have contributed to the amount of water the storm held.
Severe electrical storms were recorded in many places as the solar storm passed.
A new forecast period begins early 4 June...all eyes at this Service will be turned toward Piton de la Fournaise.

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