Aotearoa Earthquake and Volcano Forecast Service

Pacific Summary. 18 June 2017 - 21 June 2017

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Magnitude 6 risk areas are South of Macquarie Island, Macquarie Island, South of Kermadec Islands, Kermadec Islands, Santa Cruz Islands, Guadalcanal, New Britain, Bismarck Sea, Eastern Papua New Guinea, Southern Honshu, Eastern Aleutian Islands, Vancouver Island, Offshore Oregon, Northern California, Baja California, Eastern Caribbean Sea, Southern Ecuador, Northern Peru, Bolivia, Southern Chile, Morocco.
Volcanic activity may increase.
Sinabung, Sakurajima, Bogoslof, Turrialba, Poas, Piton de la Fournaise.
Quakes may be infrequent.

Update. 19 June 12.00am
18 June.
Minerva Reef Area/Northern Kermadec Islands 6.1 10.26am
The forecast period is extended to 19 June.
Montenegro is added to Mag 6 risk areas.
Solar quake driving conditions arrived early 18 June but have weakened sightly after an initial burst.
Isolated big quakes may continue next two days ahead of a potential increase on 21 June.
Volcanoes continue pluming but no eruptions.

Update. 19 June 12.30pm
Tanna is added to Mag 6 risk areas.
Solar conditions and quakes eased overnight.
An isolated big quake still seems possible.
Kermadec Islands are higher risk.

Update. 19 June 11.30pm
19 June.
Tonga 5.8
The period is extended to 20 June.
Tonga, Offshore Northern Sumatra, Celebes Sea are added to Mag 6 risk areas.
The forecast profile for an isolated big quake in the Kermadecs came close.
Solar quake driving conditions are moderate but steady.
More isolated big action seems possible on 20 June.
Tonga, Kermadec Islands, Tanna are higher risk.
Volcanoes are quiet.

Update. 21 June 12.00pm
20 June.
Eruption Sinabung.
The forecast period is extended to 21 June.
Northeast of Timor, Haiti are added to Mag 6 risk areas.
Forecast confidence=low.
Pacific quakes were quiet on 20 June.
Pacific volcanoes were pluming but only one eruption at regularly erupting Sinabung.
Solar quake driving conditions weakened steadily and are now just above the threshold for quake or volcanic activity.
Isolated Mag 6 activity seems possible on 21 June.

Summary.
18 June.
Minerva Reef Area/Northern Kermadec Islands 6.1 10.26am
19 June.
Tonga 5.8
20 June.
Eruption Sinabung.
Solar quake driving conditions steadily dropped away during the period after an early burst brought large Kermadec quakes.
Steady new conditions arrived on 22 June, possibly the late arrival of the 21 June peak forecasted a week ago.
A slow buildup may be underway.
A new forecast map is posted for 22-23 June.