Aotearoa Summary. 18 June 2017 - 21 June 2017

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Magnitude 5 risk areas are Breaksea Sound, Doubtful Sound, Big Bay, Culverden, Cheviot, Seaward Kaikouras, Ward, Seddon, Cape Campbell, South of Taranaki, East of Stratford.
Magnitude 4 risk areas are Te Anau, Karangarua, Lower Clarence, Rolleston, Motueka, Mana Island, Eketahuna, Dannevirke, Taumarunui, Rotorua, Whakatane, Opotiki, East Cape.
Volcanoes quiet.

Update. 19 June 12.00am
18 June.
Northeast of Doubtful Sound 4.2 8.17am
Whakatane 3.5 10.28am
Solar quake driving conditions arrived early 18 June but then weakened.
Isolated Mag 5 activity is possible 19-20 June.
An increase is possible 21 June.

Update. 19 June 11.45pm
19 June.
Macauley Island/Kermadecs 5.1 6.47am
Southwest of Pangai/Tonga 5.8 9.15pm
North of White Island 3.7 9.18pm
Northeast of D'Urville Island 3.5 9.19pm
North of Waikeremoana 3.6 9.22pm
Big action north of New Zealand today.
The Tonga 5.8 created a Mag 3+ quakestorm into New Zealand.
Solar conditions are moderate but steady.
Isolated local Mag 4+ quakes seem possible on 20 June.
North of New Zealand is a Pacific hotspot.
Volcanoes quiet.

Update. 21 June 11.45am
Local quakes were quiet on 20 June.
The forecast period is extended to 21 June.
Forecast confidence =low.
Solar conditions continued to fade on 20 June and now are barely above the threshold for driving quakes.
Kermadecs and Tonga were active on 20 June, pressure is high to the north.
Quakes, if any, are likely to be isolated, Mag 5 still seems possible in higher risk areas.
Volcanoes quiet.

Summary.
18 June.
Northeast of Doubtful Sound 4.2 8.17am
Whakatane 3.5 10.28am
Local and Pacific quakes faded away after an initial burst on 18 June.
Good location success.
The 7 June outlook for a quake peak on 21 June looked Increasingly unlikely as the period progressed, solar condtions and quakes weakened.
New conditions have arrived 22 June and may be the late arrival of the long term outlook.
A new forecast map is posted for 22-23 June.












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