Pacific Summary. 22 June 2017 - 27 June 2017
Volcanic activity may increase. Bogoslof, Sakurajima, Sinabung. Possibility Mag 7 SW Pacific. Bismarck Sea, Marianas Islands are higher risk locations. A slow buildup may be underway. Update. 23 June 12.45am 23 June. Guatemala 6.8 12.30am Haiti, Southern Kuril Islands are added to Mag 6 risk areas. Poas, Kamchatka are added to volcanoes. The Guatemala 6.8 is the double to the 14 June Guatemala 6.9. Southwest Pacific remains Mag 7 risk. No data for Etna or Piton de la Fournaise but eruptions seem possible. Update. 23 June 11.30pm 23 June. Eruption Sinabung. The forecast period is extended to 24 June. Solar quake driving conditions switched off soon after the Guatemala 6.8 and quakes faded away. Conditions have picked up again very late 23 June. Southwest Pacific including Kermadecs and South of Kermadecs remain high risk. The period seems likely to close by late 24 June. Update. 25 June 1.00am 24 June. Mozambique 5.8 Zambia 5.2 Eruption Bogoslof. The forecast period is extended to 25 June. Rare African twin quakes created no apparent damage. Bogoslof let off a typical big brief blast up to the stratosphere. First eruption of Bogoslof in two weeks. Confusing data for Karymsky and Pavlof volcanoes. Solar quake driving conditions fluctuated on 24 June and the trend is continuing into 25 June. Possibility Mag 7 Pacific. Confidence = low. Southwest Pacific remains higher risk. Update. 27 June 12.00am 26 June. Fiji 6.2 5.42am Eruption Kliuchevskoi. The forecast period is extended to 27 June. The higher risk outlook for Southwest Pacific is justified. The quake period is closing although an isolated late quake is possible on 27 June. Fiji, Santa Cruz Islands, Northern Vanuatu, Tonga are higher risk locations. Volcanoes have picked up late in the period. Costa Rica volcanoes Turrialba, Poas, Rincon de la Vieja are pluming and seem higher risk for eruptions. Etna is pluming and may have a strombolian eruption. Volcanic activity usually increases near the end or soon after quake periods. An undersea eruption may be underway in the Kermadec Islands or Tonga. Summary. 23 June. Guatemala 6.8 12.30am 24 June. Mozambique 5.8 Zambia 5.2 Eruption Bogoslof. 24 June. Mozambique 5.8 Zambia 5.2 Eruption Bogoslof. 26 June. Fiji 6.2 5.42am Eruption Kliuchevskoi. 27 June. South of Fiji 5.3 Eruption Bogoslof, Shiveluch, Sinabung, Sakurajima. This forecast was a major timing and location success. The biggest quake of the period, the Guatemala 6.8 wasn't in a forecast location but was well timed. The quake followed the 14 June Guatemala 6.9 in the same area and was always going to be a hard pick. Picking single quakes is tenuous, doubles even more. Southwest Pacific as a high risk location was justified. Many quakes in the Fiji area during the period, including the 26 June Fiji 6.2. The South of Fiji 5.3 was the biggest Pacific quake on 27 June as the period turned volcanic. The European outlook for Montenegro quakes had some merit, Mag 4 activity in neighbouring Macedonia, Albania and Romania was persistent during the period. The African quakes were significant given big quakes there are uncommon. Lava flowing from Ethiopian volcano Erta Ale is also significantly increasing. The outlook for volcanoes to take over on 27 June as the quake period closed was proven correct. Bogoslof erupted early in the period after two weeks of quiet then erupted again late on 27 June. Double timing success. Kamchatka Peninsula volcanoes are an easy forecast pick at the moment, Kliuchevskoi, Shiveluch, Karymsky all erupting regularly and an ominous pointer to future Pacific volcanic activity and its implications for the continued global temperature decline following the very cold Northern Hemisphere winter. Global warming is politically driven nonsense...believe it at your peril. Sakurajima and Sinabung further justified the outlook for a volcanic pickup on 27 June. Costa Rica volcanoes Poas, Turrialba and Rincon de la Vieja threw ash but never really erupted. The possible undersea Kermadecs eruption ended as quickly as it potentially began. Louisville volcano Monowai is a possible candidate but visual confirmation is unlikely to ever be made...a minor eruption may not leave any visual evidence on the ocean surface such as pumice or discoloured water. A very brief quake period may occur on 29 June...Southwest Pacific remains a possible hotspot. Aotearoa Earthquake and Volcano Forecast Service © 2013 - 2024 |
