Aotearoa Summary. 22 June 2017 - 25 June 2017

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Magnitude 5 risk areas are Whakatane, Opotiki, Southern Bay of Plenty, East Cape, Northeast of East Cape, East of Stratford, South of Taranaki.
Magnitude 4 risk areas are Breaksea Sound, Doubtful Sound, Te Anau, Lower Cascade, Culverden, Cheviot, Kaikoura, Seaward Kaikouras, Ward, Cape Campbell, Mana Island, Northwest of Kapiti Island, Southwest of Wanganui, Motueka, Eketahuna, Dannevirke, Taumarunui, Taupo, Tokoroa, Rotorua, Urewera.
Quakes are likely to be infrequent.
Lunar modulation may center quakes around low tide.
Low tide Bay of Plenty 11.00am, 11.00pm
Volcanoes quiet.

Update. 23 June 1.00am
22 June.
Rolleston 3.7 1.28pm
Doubtful Sound 4.4 10.54pm
The Rolleston 3.7 follows the 10 June Rolleston 4.1 and was felt out west but hasn't generated any news interest except at this Service.
Forecasts have chased Canterbury Plains activity through late May and June but mostly ended up playing the earthquake version of phonetag. Very frustrating.
Quakes have picked up along with increasing solar conditions on 22 June.
The Guatemala 6.8 has gone off tonight and a continuing Mag 7 risk for the Southwest Pacific which includes the Kermadec Islands and South of Kermadecs.
Local quakes are likely to be well spaced but magnitudes possibly high.
Be careful.

Update. 24 June 12.00am
23 June.
North of East Cape 4.3 10.26pm
Seaward Kaikouras 3.8 11.11pm
The forecast period is extended to 24 June.
Solar quake driving conditions switched off soon after the Guatemala 6.8 but have picked up again late 23 June and quakes have followed.
The North of East Cape 4.3 fits the forecast profile for Bay of Plenty and South of Kermadecs quake action.
Southwest Pacific remains high risk for some isolated big action.
The period seems likely to end by late 24 June.

Update. 24 June 12.30pm
24 June.
10km Southwest of Mana Island 3.8 5.49am
Southwest Pacific remains Mag 6 risk this morning as solar quake driving conditions fluctuate between weak and very strong.
The 10km southwest of Mana Island 3.8 was widely felt and good location success.
Lunar modulation may have been present, the quake was 2 hours from low tide.
Solar conditions are switched off at the time of this post but seem likely to switch again with the fluctuating conditions.
Low tide Mana Island = 4.15pm.

Update. 25 June 12.30am
24 June.
Tokoroa 4.5 11.58pm
The forecast period is extended to 25 June.
Risk locations and magnitudes are unchanged.
Good location success from infrequent quakes so far during the period.
Solar conditions fluctuated during 24 May... so did quakes.
Conditions look set to continue on 25 May.
Quakes are likely to be infrequent under a fluctuating and weakening trend but high magnitude is possible.
Southwest Pacific remains a Mag 6 risk area including Kermadecs, South of Kermadecs.

Summary.
22 June.
Rolleston 3.7 1.28pm
Doubtful Sound 4.4 10.54pm
23 June.
North of East Cape 4.3 10.26pm
Seaward Kaikouras 3.8 11.11pm
24 June.
10km Southwest of Mana Island 3.8 5.49am
25 June.
Southern Fiordland 3.7 9.58pm
This forecast worked very well with significant location and timing success.
The period probably ended locally on 25 June.
Luckily quakes never reached high magnitude despite big action north of New Zealand.
Local quake periods are becoming milder as the sun moves toward solar minimum.
Kaikoura is becoming significantly quieter. No Mag 6 aftershock has occurred and hopefully it stays that way.
The long term outlook for volcanoes to dominate quakes next few years can only be proven in the next few years.
An undersea eruption may be underway in the Kermadecs or Tonga.









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