Aotearoa Summary. 1 July 2017 - 8 July 2017

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30 June 2017 - 1 July, 2017.
Magnitude 5 risk areas are Lake Hauroko, Breaksea Sound, Doubtful Sound, West Te Anau, Caswell Sound, South of Taranaki, East of Stratford, Taumarunui, Taupo, Tokoroa, Urewera, Rotorua, Whakatane, Opotiki, East Cape, Northeast of East Cape.
Magnitude 4 risk areas are Milford Sound, Big Bay, Cascade River, Hollyford River, Rolleston, Harper Pass, Hanmer, Culverden, Cheviot, Kaikoura, Seaward Kaikouras, Ward, Cape Campbell, Tapawera, West of Mana Island, Southwest of Wanganui, Eketahuna, Dannevirke, Waipukurau, Porangahau, Northeast of Wairoa, Auckland.
Quakes may arrive late on 30 June or early 1 July.
The 28 June Aotearoa Summary had an early outlook for activity on 30 June but twin Kermadec Islands 6.0 quakes arrived on 29 June and before this forecast is posted.
South of Kermadecs, Kermadecs, Fiji, Vanuatu, Santa Cruz Islands remain high risk Pacific areas for Mag 6 activity on 30 June.
Be careful.
Volcanoes quiet.

Update. 30 June 11.00pm
30 June.
20km Northwest of Whakatane 3.6 5.57pm
70km North of White Island 4.1, 3.8, 3.6, 3.6 6.00-6.30pm
The forecast period is extended to 1 July.
The White Island Mag 4 swarm reflects the heavy Kermadecs pressure last few days.
Solar conditions were quiet on 30 June.
New conditions should be here very soon and may only last for a day.

Update. 1 July 5.00pm
1 July.
East of East Cape 3.9 7.42am
Whakatane 3.6 12.01pm
Solar conditions arrived early on 1 July.
Conditions have steadily strengthened during the day.
Quakes look to be set in the East Cape, Bay of Plenty Mag 5 hotspot.
The forecast period is likely to be extended to 2 July.

Update. 2 July 7.00pm
2 July. Cromwell 4.4 11.21am
The forecast period is extended to 3 July.
Cromwell is added to Mag 4 risk areas.
The 30 June outlook for the forecast period to be short was a mistake.
Solar quake driving conditions are very strong tonight.
More action seems likely, including at Cromwell.
The forecast period is likely to be extended further as new conditions are due on 4 June.
A forecast update extending the period to 2 July was never posted due to the All Blacks rugby game.
A new forecast map will be posted on 3 July.

Update. 3 July 12.00pm
North of White Island 4.1 12.35am
Plenty of action north of New Zealand in the Bay of Plenty and Kermadecs.
Solar conditions weakened this morning but are fluctuating.
New solar conditions could arrive later today.
Quakes may be infrequent.
Cromwell remains Mag 4 risk.
Forecast confidence=low.

Update. 4 July 12.00am
North of White Island 4.1 12.35am
The forecast period is extended to 4 July.
New solar quake driving conditions have not arrived and may not arrive. Confidence=low.
Quakes are likely to be infrequent.
Volcanoes quiet.

Update. 5 July 12.00am
4 July.
Motiti Island 3.8 6.52pm
Whakatane 3.5 8.46pm
The forecast period is extended to 5 July.
Solar conditions remained quiet on 4 July.
Biggest local quakes were unsurprisingly in the Bay of Plenty, reflecting ongoing pressure north of Aotearoa.
New solar conditions may arrive late on 5 July.
Risk locations are unchanged.
Volcanos quiet.

Update. 5 July 11.30pm
4 July.
Motiti Island 3.8 6.52pm
Whakatane 3.5 8.46pm
The forecast period is extended to 6 July.
Infrequent quakes near Mag 4 define the period so far.
Difficult forecast conditions.
Bay of Plenty remains a potential hotspot.
Solar quake driving conditions have proven difficult to keep ahead of today. Confidence is low.

Update. 7 July 8.30am
6 July.
Atiwhakatu Stream/Eastern Tararuas 4.4 8.44pm
Unknown Stream/Wilberforce River 3.8 11.30pm
7 July.
West of White Island 3.5 1.57pm
The forecast period is extended to 7 July.
New solar conditions came through on cue and Pacific quakes soon followed.
The Atiwhakatu Stream 4.4 was widely felt.
Solar conditions are fluctuating strongly this morning.
More local and Pacific quakes seem possible.
A Pacific Update will be posted later.

Summary.
30 June.
20km Northwest of Whakatane 3.6 5.57pm
70km North of White Island 4.1, 3.8, 3.6, 3.6 6.00-6.30pm
1 July.
East of East Cape 3.9 7.42am
Whakatane 3.6 12.01pm
2 July.
Cromwell 4.4 11.21am
3 July.
North of White Island 4.1 12.35am
4 July.
Motiti Island 3.8 6.52pm
Whakatane 3.5 8.46pm
6 July.
Atiwhakatu Stream/Eastern Tararuas 4.4 8.44pm
Unknown Stream/Wilberforce River 3.8 11.30pm
7 July.
West of White Island 3.5 1.57pm
8 July.
Taranaki Bight 4.0 11.12am
Unknown Stream 3.7 11.46am
This forecast had many successes in the end.
The outlook for Bay of Plenty and Kermadecs action was borne out.
Solar conditions were only moderate and tend to flatten out forecast periods into infrequent, moderate Magnitude quakes with unchanging risk locations.
Any forecast success is good from such difficult solar conditions. Low confidence was justified.
Quakes eased in Bay of Plenty as the period progressed but the Atiwhakatu 4.4 and Taranaki Bight 4.0 late in the period justified retaining locations and time extensions.
The Atiwhakatu 4.4 was concurrent with the Montana 5.8 and Philippines 6.5.
Fiordland was unexpectedly quiet during the period. The nearby Cromwell 4.4 was a new observation, quakes aren't common there.
A new forecast period begins 9 July.





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