Pacific Summary Updated. 1 July 2017 - 6 July 2017

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Magnitude 6 risk areas are Macquarie Island, South of Kermadec Islands, Kermadec Islands, Northern Vanuatu, Santa Cruz Islands, Guadalcanal, Bougainville, New Britain, Northern Sumatra, Southern Philippines, Southern Mariana Islands, Northern Kuril Islands, Eastern Aleutian Islands, Alaska, Vancouver Island, Northern California, Inland Northern Peru, South of Lima, South of Santiago.
Southwest Pacific is higher risk.
Volcanic activity may increase.
Sinabung, Sakurajima, Shiveluch, Kliuchevskoi, Karymsky, Bogoslof.
The period may only last one day.

Update. 1 July 5.00pm
1 July.
Ecuador/South of Pedernales 6.0 10.29am
Kermadec Islands/Northeast of Raoul Island 5.1 4.52pm
The forecast period is extended to 2 July.
Solar conditions arrived early on 1 July.
Solar quake driving conditions have strengthened during the day.
More Mag 6 activity seems possible.
Hindu Kush is added to Mag 6 risk areas.
All other risk locations including Northern California are unchanged.
Southwest Pacific is higher risk.
The South of Pedernales 6.0 may be an aftershock to the 17 April, 2016 Pedernales 7.8.
The Pedernales 7.8 came along with a whole swag of Pacific Mag 6 and 7 quakes over several days.
The 14-17 April, 2016 Pacific forecast period is summarised in quakestorm.co.nz archive.
No data for volcanoes.

Update. 3 July 11.30am
2 July.
Kermadec Islands/North of Raoul 5.4
Eruption Suwanosejima.
3 July.
Kermadec Islands/North of Raoul 5.5
The forecast period is extended to 3 July.
Tonga, Southern Mexico, Trinidad are added to Mag 6 risk areas.
Biggest Pacific quakes 2-3 July were in the Kermadecs.
2x Japanese volcanos, 3x Kamchatka volcanos and at least one Aleutian volcano are erupting regularly.
Solar conditions are weak this morning but are fluctuating and new conditions are possible later today.
Kermadecs remain a Pacific hotspot.
Forecast confidence=low.

Update. 4 July 12.00am
3 July.
Eruption Bogoslof, Kliuchevskoi.
The forecast period is extended to 4 July.
Volcanoes are dominating late in the period.
Another big brief blast into the stratosphere at Bogoslof.
New solar conditions haven't yet arrived and may not arrive at all. Confidence is low.
Quakes are likely to be isolated.
Volcanoes may erupt more.

Summary.
1 July.
Ecuador/South of Pedernales 6.0 10.29am
Kermadec Islands/Northeast of Raoul Island 5.1 4.52pm
2 July.
Kermadec Islands/North of Raoul 5.4
Eruption Suwanosejima, Popocateptl.
3 July.
Kermadec Islands/North of Raoul 5.5
Eruption Bogoslof, Kliuchevskoi.
5 July.
South of Santiago 5.9
Kermadecs/Macauley 4.9
Eruption Bogoslof.
Eruptions dominated quakes during the period and seem increasingly likely to dominate for years to come.
There will be climatic consequences from so many volcanic eruptions.
Multiple eruptions at Kamchatka Peninsula, Aleutians, Japan, Sumatra and Mexican volcano Popocatepetl.
The quake trail continues to weaken but reasonable quake location success.
Kermadec Islands were a Southwest Pacific hotspot during the period...many Mag 5 quakes.
New solar conditions forecasted for 4-5 July never arrived or may be very late arriving.
New solar conditions are possible from late 6 July but low confidence. Difficult conditions at the moment.
Volcanic activity seems more likely than quakes.

Summary Updated.
6 July.
Montana USA 5.8
Philippines 6.5
Eruption Sinabung.
The low confidence Summary outlook for new solar conditions late on 6 July proved correct.
Solar conditions arrived exactly on cue.
The Montana 5.8 was the biggest quake for twenty years but luckily caused no damage.
The Philippines 6.5 caused a lot of damage but "luckily" only a few casualties.
Both quakes had some correlation with the forecast map.
A new forecast period begins 9 July.






















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