Pacific Summary. 9 July 2017 - 14 July 2017

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Magnitude 6 risk areas are Macquarie Island, Southern Vanuatu, New Britain, Banda Sea, Kyushu, Honshu, Baja California, Nicaragua, Inland Peru, South of Titicaca.
Volcanic activity may increase.
Sinabung, Sakurajima, Bogoslof, Fuego.

Update. 9 July 11.30pm
South Sandwich Islands 5.6
Eruption Sinabung.
The forecast period is extended to 10 July.
Southern Philippines, Celebes Sea, Western Himalaya are added to Mag 6 risk areas.
Macedonia is added to Mag 5 risk areas.
Popocatepetl is added to volcanos.
Solar quake driving conditions arrived on cue today and have steadily built into strong conditions tonight.

Update. 10 July 11.30am
Pacific quakes are below Mag 6 so far in the period.
No data for volcanos....its always slow coming through on a Sunday.
South of Kyushu, Tonga, Kermadec Islands, Ecuador are added to Mag 6 risk areas.
Agrihan is added to volcanos.
Solar quake and eruption conditions are strong today.
Japan, Kermadec Islands, Tonga, Vanuatu are higher risk.
The forecast period is likely to be extended.

Update. 11 July 12.00am
10 July.
Central Philippines 5.9
Eruption Bogoslof, Fuego.
The forecast period is extended to 11 July.
The Philippines 5.9 was an aftershock from the 6 July 6.5.
Volcanoes are building up.
New activity at Fuego may strengthen.
Solar conditions weakened on 10 July.
Quakes are likely to become infrequent as solar conditions slowly fade.

Update. 11 July 12.30pm
East Java, Valparaiso are added to Mag 6 risk areas.
Quakes were quiet overnight as solar conditions weakened.
Conditions are picking up again today and could switch on anytime.

Update. 12 July 12.00am
11 July.
Northwest of Auckland Island 6.6 7.34pm
The forecast period is extended to 12 July.
New Zealand is added to Mag 6 risk areas.
Eruption Kliuchevskoi, Bogoslof, Fuego.
Big quake action south of New Zealand.
New eruption at Bogolslof.
Eruption increasing at Fuego.
Solar quake driving conditions came on late today and the big Auckland Island 6.6 soon followed.
Solar quake driving conditions are still strong tonight so more quakes and eruptions may follow.
Possibility Mag 7 Pacific.
Be careful.

Update. 12 July 10.00pm
12 July.
South of Valparaiso 5.5
Eruption Fuego.
The forecast period is extended to 13 July.
Offshore Northern California is added to Mag 6 risk areas.
The 11 July addition of Valparaiso to risk locations was justified.
Biggest quake on 12 July on target at the Southern Chile location.
The eruption of Fuego is substantial according to local vulcanologists.
Solar quake driving conditions steadily weakened on 12 July.
There may still be enough energy to drive a late isolated quake or eruption before the forecast period closes.

Update. 13 July 12.00pm
13 July.
Sea of Japan 5.9
Eastern Himalayas are added to Mag 6 risk areas.
The Sea of Japan 5.9 was too deep to cause damage.
The 9 July addition of Macedonia to Mag 5 risk areas may yet be justified.
Persistent Mediterranean activity centered around Macedonia last few days.
Solar conditions continue to fade today as expected.
An isolated late big quake is still possible as the period closes.

Update. 14 July 12.00am
13 July.
New Britain 6.7 3.36pm
The forecast period is extended to 14 July.
Two big quakes on 13 July, one directly on a forecast area and one very close.
The period is turning into a very successful one.
Volcanoes were quiet.
Solar conditions gained momentum during the day and are moderate tonight.
Conditions seem likely to fade again on 14 July but still have enough energy left to drive a big quake.
Volcanoes could pick up briefly before the period ends.

Summary.
9 July.
South Sandwich Islands 5.6
Eruption Sinabung.
10 July.
Central Philippines 5.9
Eruption Bogoslof, Fuego.
11 July.
Northwest of Auckland Island 6.6 7.34pm
12 July.
South of Valparaiso 5.5
Eruption Fuego.
13 July.
Sea of Japan 5.9
New Britain 6.7
Kermadec Islands 5.1
14 July.
Eruption Piton de la Fournaise.
15 July.
Eruption Sangeang Api, Sinabung.
This forecast had many successes, including the infrequently forecasted Macquarie Island.
The addition of Southern Philippines on 9 July was a frustrating near miss when the 11 July Central Philippines 5.9 aftershock hit.
The 10 July Fuego eruption was a good timing success.
The 11 July Northwest of Auckland Island 6.6 was widely felt across southern New Zealand.
A new forecast map for 12 July should have been posted as with the Aotearoa forecast...adding South of Fiordland and Fiordland as risk areas was confusing without the accompanying written forecast. The map also got very cluttered by 14 July.
Quakes dropped below Mag 6 on 12 July but the biggest quake was right on a risk location.
13 July brought the New Britain 6.7 and more location success.
Piton de la Fournaise erupted on 14 July but not a forecast pick.
Frustratingly the OVPF website supporting observations at Piton de la Fournaise is formatted in French and harder to navigate around than picking a Mag 4 at Cape Campbell...data access is difficult.
Pacific quakes were below Mag 6 on 15/16 July as the period ended.
The eruption of Piton de la Fournaise has slowed quickly but may increase again on 18 July.
Significant cold weather was recorded in New Zealand and Southern Chile during the period.
The East Asia Monsoon season is apparently very wet and cold and creating devastating floods with accompanying food shortages, diseases etc.
Evidence for a cold wet summer in Central Canada, North USA.
More weather and volcano info at Facebook/Roary Arbon.
A substantial quake period may arrive late 17 July.





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