Aotearoa Summary. 17 July 2017 - 20 July 2017

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Magnitude 6 risk areas are Snares Islands, Breaksea Sound, Doubtful Sound, Te Anau, Culverden, Cheviot, Kaikoura, Seaward Kaikouras, South of Hawera.
Magnitude 5 risk areas are Puysegur Point, Cascade River, Haast, Tapuaenuku, Ward, Seddon, Cape Campbell, South of Wellington, Turakirae Head, Orongorongo Valley, Central Taranaki Bight, Taupo, Tokoroa, Rotorua, Whakatane, Opotiki, East Cape, White Island.
Magnitude 4 risk areas are Upper Hokitika Valley, Rolleston, West of Rolleston, Atiwhakatu Stream, Southwest of Wanganui, Northeast of Hawera, Taumarunui, Eketahuna, Castlepoint, Dannevirke, Waipukurau, Porangahau, Wairoa, Tokomaru Bay.
Volcanoes quiet.
The arrival of the forecast period is brought forward.
Quakes may arrive late 16 July or early 17 July.
The period is likely to be extended to 19 July.
Be careful.

Update. 18 July 12.00am
Local quakes were under Mag 4 on 17 July.
The early forecast posting was justified by the early arrival of solar quake driving conditions and aurora soon after.
Pacific quakes were slow to respond, Aotearoa stayed quiet.
A slow buildup may be underway.
Quakes are likely to be infrequent on 18 July, high magnitude is still possible.
Be careful.
The period is likely to be extended.

Update. 18 July 11.30pm
18 July.
Queenstown 3.4 1.56pm
Northeast of Hawera 3.4 10.20pm
The forecast period is extended to 19 July.
Local quakes were quiet on 18 July, the equal biggest in a risk location.
High magnitude risk was probably justified, given the biggest Pacific quake since the 22 January Bougainville 7.9 went off in the Aleutians.
Solar driving conditions are weakening tonight but still have enough energy to drive another big Pacific quake...hopefully it isn't New Zealand.
Low frequency, high magnitude local quakes seem possible on 19 July.
Be careful.

Update. 19 July 11.00pm
19 July.
South of Kermadec Islands 4.4 8.06am
East of Tory Channel 3.7 3.46pm
Waipukurau 3.6 3.51pm
Quakes were below Mag 4 on 19 July.
The biggest quake was in Cook Strait and was felt in Wellington.
The Waipukurau 3.6 was right under the town and gave the locals a good rattle.
Solar conditions steadily faded along with quakes.
Quakes seem likely to be infrequent or absent on 20 July.
Conditions may go quiet until 22 July.

18 July.
Queenstown 3.4 1.56pm
Northeast of Hawera 3.4 10.20pm
19 July.
South of Kermadec Islands 4.4 8.06am
East of Tory Channel 3.7 3.46pm
Waipukurau 3.6 3.51pm
21 July.
Upper Hokitika River 4.3 1.39am
The period started very slowly locally but was going big in the Pacific.
The Aleutians 7.7 gave some justification to the hefty magnitude risk in New Zealand.
Local quakes arrived on 19 July with good location success but moderate magnitude.
Conditions went quiet 20 July.
The 21 July Hokitika River 4.3 is linked to the following 21-22 July forecast period.
The 19 July outlook for a new quake period on 22 July was a mistake, solar conditions arrived a day early, driving the Hoki 4.3 and the damaging Western Turkey 6.7.
The Hoki risk location has ended up straddling two forecast periods.
The period was marked by the passing of active sunspot 12665.
Active sunspots were common from 2012-2015 but are now rare as the sun progresses toward solar minimum on its mostly 11 year cycle.
The implications of sunspot activity on climate in coming years are well understood by the leading astrophysicists.
Keep your winter woollies and umbrella handy.
Weather postings are regularly made on Facebook/Roary Arbon.

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