Pacific Summary. 17 July 2017 - 20 July 2017

Click to Enlarge
Magnitude 6 risk areas are Macquarie Island, Auckland Island, Snares Islands, New Zealand, South of Kermadecs, Kermadec Islands, Tonga, Makira, South Banda Sea, Sulawesi, Eastern Himalayas, Western Himalayas, North Mariana Islands, Okinawa, Kyushu, Honshu, Hokkaido, Andreanof Islands, North California, Southern Mexico, Ecuador, Valparaiso, Italy.
Volcanic activity may increase.
Sinabung, Sakurajima, Sangeang Api, Kliuchevskoi, Shiveluch, Karymsky, Bogoslof, Poas, Turrialba, Piton de la Fournaise, Etna.
Possibility Mag 7 Pacific.
The forecast period is likely to be extended to 19 July.

Update. 17 July 11.30pm
17 July.
Tonga 5.5, 5.6
Western Aleutian Islands 6.3
Eruption Suwanose-jima.
Bismarck Sea, Vanuatu, Southern California are added to Mag 6 risk areas.
Solar quake driving conditions arrived early, bringing auroras and justifying bringing forward the forecast by 12 hours.
Quakes were slightly slow to respond, the biggest quakes in or near risk locations.
Solar conditions are steady, a slow buildup is possibly underway.
Infrequent large quakes seem possible on 18 July.
Possibility Mag 7 Pacific.

Update. 19 July 12.00am
18 July.
Western Aleutian Islands 7.7 11.34am
Southern Peru 6.4 2.05pm
Eruption Piton de la Fournaise, Sinabung, Kliuchevskoi, Karymsky.
The forecast period is extended to 19 July.
The biggest Pacific quake since the 22 January Bougainville 7.9 has gone off, Mag 7 risk is justified.
The Peru 6.4 and new eruption of Piton de la Fournaise occurred soon after and will keep the sceptics guessing.
The Peru 6.4 wasn't on the forecast radar, Titicaca and South of Titicaca have become very difficult lately to follow....the Ecuador risk location is falling over.
The Aleutians 7.7 was a follow on from the 17 July 6.3 at the same location.
Volcano data is slightly vague but apparent Kamchatka Peninsula eruptions matching the nearby big quakes.
Solar conditions are weakening tonight but still with enough energy to drive more activity.
Isolated big Pacific quakes and eruptions seem possible on 19 July.

Update. 19 July 11.00pm
19 July.
Quakes were below Mag 6.
Vulcanologists report a possible eruption at Sangeang Api.
The eruption of Piton de la Fournaise weakened today.
Solar conditions steadily faded on 19 July and seem likely to go below the threshold for driving big quakes on 20 July.
The forecast period is the strongest quake spell since mid January...so caution seems prudent for one more day.
The forecast period is extended to 20 July.
A very late Pacific quake is possible.

Summary.
17 July.
Tonga 5.5, 5.6
Western Aleutian Islands 6.3
Eruption Suwanose-jima.
18 July.
Western Aleutian Islands 7.7 11.34am
Southern Peru 6.4 2.05pm
Eruption Piton de la Fournaise, Sinabung, Kliuchevskoi, Karymsky.
19 July.
Eruption Sangeang Api?
20 July.
Eastern Honshu 5.8
The Western Aleutian Islands 6.3, 7.7 double quake was the biggest Pacific quake since the 22 January Bougainville 7.9.
Mag 7 risk was justified, the quakes very near to the Rat Islands/Andreanof Islands target area.
The Peru 6.4 was just 2.5 hours after the Aleutians 7.7.
Peru/South of Titicaca areas have been difficult to follow for several weeks.
The 20 January Eastern Honshu 5.8 finished a very active period.
The 14 July eruption of Piton de la Fournaise was frustratingly outside a forecast period.
The eruption faded quickly but picked up again on 17 July at the start of the period and will keep the sceptics guessing.
The volcano had been inflating for several weeks and was only a matter of time until an eruption.
Volcanoes were active during the period.
Sakurajima never erupted but nearby Suwanosejima did on 17 July.
Kamchatka volcanoes unsurprisingly went off with the nearby Aleutians 7.7.
The eruption of Sangeang Api is uncertain. Remote eruptions are detected by satellite photos, heavy cloud cover will obscure ash plumes.
This service has problems navigating the OVPF website, maintained by the French vulcanologists on the Indian Ocean island of Reunion and Piton de la Fournaise. We may be missing data.
Vulcanologists at Sicilian volcano Etna seem to have either blocked seismic data out or they have got a hell of a lot of broken equipment up there. Hopefully they will start releasing data again soon.
The 21 July Western Turkey/Kos 6.7 is linked to the following 21-22 July forecast period.
The quake has taken a few lives.
The 19 July forecast outlook for a new quake period on 22 July was a mistake, solar quake driving conditions arrived a day early.

Content © Roary Arbon 2013 - 2016
Website Design by Go Tech.