Aotearoa Earthquake and Volcano Forecast Service

Pacific Summary. 21 July 2017 - 29 July 2017

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21 July 4.30pm NZST.
Magnitude 6 risk areas are Macquarie Island, Auckland Island, New Zealand, South of Kermadecs, Kermadec Islands, Tonga, Northern Vanuatu, Santa Cruz Islands, Makira, Celebes Sea, Northern Mariana Islands, South of Japan, Okinawa, Hokkaido, Kuril Islands, Northern California, Southern California, El Salvador, Inland Peru, South of Titicaca, Himalayas.
Volcanic activity may increase.
Bogolsof, Kliuchevskoi, Karymsky, Shiveluch, Sakurajima, Sinabung, Poas, Turrialba, Piton de la Fournaise.
No data for Etna.
The 19 July outlook for a new quake period on 22 July was a mistake.
The period started a day early.
The 10.31am NZST Western Turkey 6.7 occurred before this forecast was posted.
A forecast is posted for the remainder of the period.

Update. 22 July 1.30pm
Quakes have been under Mag 6 so far in the period.
Banda Aceh is added to Mag 6 risk areas.
Northern Italy, Eastern Europe are added to Mag 4 risk areas.
Solar conditions weakened yesterday but are changing now.
Conditions may fluctuate and weaken again.

Update. 24 July 12.00am
21 July.
Efate/Vanuatu 5.5
Eruption Piton de la Fournaise, Sinabung, Nishinoshima.
22 July.
Armatrice/Italy 4.1
Eruption Sinabung, Kliuchevskoi, Piton de la Fournaise.
23 July.
Tonga 5.5, 5.6
Quakes eased after the Western Turkey/Kos 6.7 which occurred before this forecast was posted.
Volcanoes were very busy.
The eruption of Piton de la Fournaise remains steady through the period.
Sinabung had multiple eruptions on 21 July.
New Zealand got the big weather bomb in the South Island 21-22 July...not a great sign but local quakes have stayed quiet so far.
The forecast period is extended to 24 July.
Solar conditions are steady through the period.
Volcanic activity looks set to continue.
Isolated big Pacific quakes are possible.
Banda Aceh, Tonga are higher risk locations.
The forecast period is likely to be extended.

Update. 25 July 12.00am
24 July.
Northeast Honshu 5.6
Eruption Shiveluch, Kliuchevskoi, Piton de la Fournaise.
The forecast period is extended to 25 July.
Pacific quakes are becoming isolated as the end of the period nears.
Honshu 5.6 was the biggest and good location success.
Kamchatka Peninsula is hot.
The eruption at Piton de la Fournaise is fading away.
Solar conditions are fading but an isolated late quake is possible on 25 July.

Update. 26 July 12.00am
Pacific quakes were under Mag 6 and very subdued on 25 July.
Volcanoes were active.
Sinabung, Kliuchevskoi, Shiveluch erupting daily during the period and other volcanoes pluming.
Solar conditions were only moderate but steady on 25 July.
The forecast period is extended to 26 July.
North Peru is added to Mag 6 risk areas.
Strong fluctuating solar conditions have briefly picked up tonight.
An isolated Pacific Mag 6 seems possible.
New Zealand remains a Pacific Mag 6 risk location.
The period may close early 27 July.

Update. 27 July 12.00am
26 July.
Okinanwa 6.0
Eruption Sakurajima, Sinabung.
Isolated Pacific Mag 6 quakes continued on 26 July.
Perfect double Japanese location success.
Many volcanoes are pluming, puffing ash or erupting at low level.
Lava is apparently still flowing at Piton de la Fournaise but slowing down.
Solar quake driving conditions were weak and steady, running against the "steadily weakening" outlook, a forecast mistake.
The forecast period is extended to 27 July and may extend to 28 July.
An isolated Mag 6 seems possible.
New Zealand remains a Pacific Mag 6 risk location.

Update. 29 July 1.52am.
Solar quake driving conditions have arrived tonight.
Local quake activity is possible on 29 July.
Locations are the same as the 21-27 July forecast map.
An update will be posted soon.
Thanks.
This update was posted on Facebook/Roary Arbon but not the archive at quakestorm.co.nz.

Summary.
21 July.
Western Turkey/Kos 6.7
Efate/Vanuatu 5.5
Eruption Piton de la Fournaise, Sinabung, Nishinoshima.
22 July.
Armatrice/Italy 4.1
Eruption Sinabung, Kliuchevskoi, Piton de la Fournaise.
23 July.
Tonga 5.5, 5.6
24 July.
Northeast Honshu 5.6
Eruption Shiveluch, Kliuchevskoi, Piton de la Fournaise.
26 July.
Okinanwa 6.0
Eruption Sakurajima, Sinabung.
28 July.
Banda Sea 5.8
Atlantic Ocean 5.9
29 July.
Auckland Island 4.4
Offshore Northern California 5.1
Southern California 4.3

The forecast period had some timing issues but good location success.
Quakes were mostly under Mag 6 but volcanoes were very active.
The Kos 6.7 took a few lives and flattened a couple of villages.
The outlook for the period to begin on 22 July was a timing mistake.
The quake period started early on 21 July, no forecast was posted.
A forecast was posted for the remainder of the period.
Quakes eased for a couple of days after the initial shock, falling under Mag 6.
Location success was good...the biggest Mag 5 quakes tended to match the forecast locations.
The 22 July 2.13pm Northern Italy/Armatrice 4.1 came just 40 minutes after Northern Italy was added as a Mag 4 risk location.
Volcanoes were very active and an understated force in the "climate change" debate.
More timing issues emerged at the end of the period.
Late solar driving conditions expected on 26-27 July never showed up and the forecast went low confidence.
Solar conditions then showed up two days late on 29 July, a forecast mistake.
A brief update for 29 July was posted on Facebook.
The significant 29 July Northern California 5.1 was followed 40 minutes later by the Southern California 4.3, matching forecast locations and justifying the California inclusion in a period that barely reached Mag 6.
A Mag 4.4 aftershock was felt at the 11 July Auckland Island 6.6 location.
A new quake period may begin late on 2 August.