Aotearoa Earthquake and Volcano Forecast Service

Pacific Summary. 2 August 2017 - 3 August 2017

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Magnitude 6 risk areas are South of Kermadecs, Kermadec Islands, Tonga, Northern Vanuatu, Santa Cruz Islands, Guadalcanal, Bougainville, New Britain, Banda Sea, Southern Sumatra, Banda Aceh, Kuril Islands, Rat Islands, Andreanof Islands, Cuba, Eastern Caribbean Sea, Guatemala, Inland Argentina, Hindu Kush.
Magnitude 5 risk areas are Algeria, Romania.
Volcanic activity may increase.
Sinabung, Piton de la Fournaise, Karymsky, Kliuchevskoi, Shiveluch, Sabancaya.

Update. 3 August 11.00am
2 August.
Santiago/Chile 5.5
Vallenar/Chile 5.3
South of Kermadecs 5.3
Romania 4.6
Eruption Suwanosejima, Sinabung, Kliuchevskoi.
Biggest quakes were right on a forecast location.
Romania got a good little rattle.
Sinabung was apparently a large eruption.
Solar conditions arrived on cue but without any strength.
Big Pacific quakes seem unlikely on 3 August.
More Mag 5 quakes in risk locations are possible.
Typhoon Noru is slowly approaching Japan but seems unlikely to power up to Cat 4 or 5 unless solar conditions strengthen.

Summary.
2 August.
Santiago/Chile 5.5
Vallenar/Chile 5.3
Romania 4.6
Eruption Suwanosejima, Sinabung, Kliuchevskoi.
3 August.
South of Kermadecs 5.3
Vallenar/Chile 5.3
Tonga 5.3
Eruption Suwanosejima, Shiveluch.
Solar quake driving condtions arrived on time but were very weak.
Quakes were consequently below Mag 6 but the biggest quakes fitted very well to risk locations.
Volcanoes were very active.
Volcanoes often erupt near the end or after quake periods so the big activity could be related to the earlier very long 21-29 July period.
The 2 August Sinabung eruption is described as the biggest in three years. Multiple big pyroclastic eruptions. News is scant as always in Indonesia but most of the nearby locals moved out a long time ago under the constant onslaught of ash from the ever increasing eruptions at Sinabung.
No news for Piton de la Fournaise.
A new period is here on 4 August.