Pacific Summary. 5 August 2017 - 9 August 2017

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Magnitude 6 risk areas are South of Kermadec Islands, Kermadec Islands, Tonga, Northern Vanuatu, Bougainville, New Britain, South Banda Sea, Southern Sumatra, Northern California, Baja California, Guantanamo Bay, Eastern Caribbean Sea, Northern Peru, Valdivia.
Volcanic activity may increase.
Sinabung, Kliuchevskoi, Suwanosejima, Sabancaya, Piton de la Fournaise.
Quakes have tended to be under Mag 6 but good location in recent forecasts.
The Mag 5 trend may continue.
Quakes may begin late 4 August.

Update. 5 August 9.30pm
5 August.
Southern Philippines 5.8 12.30pm
No data for volcanoes.
No data for Typhoon Noru.
Solar quake driving conditions arrived on time and had a little more push than the previous forecast.
The Southern Philippines 5.8 wasn't a location success but significantly large in the current Mag 5 trend and good timing success.
The forecast period is extended to 6 August.
Isolated big quake activity is possible.

Update. 6 August 11.30pm
6 August.
Southwest of Auckland Island 4.6 10.42am
Makira/Eastern Solomon Islands 5.7 12.15pm
Eruption Shiveluch.
The Mag 5 trend continued on 6 August.
Biggest quake at Makira.
Quakes were isolated.
The forecast period is extended to 7 August.
Quakes, if any, seem likely to be isolated.
More volcanic activity seems possible.
No news for Piton de la Fournaise.
More volcano data may come later.
News is sparse for Typhoon Noru. Japanese news seems to be tightly controlled at times.
The typhoon is apparently very slow moving and not yet crossing onto Kyushu.

Update. 7 August 10.30pm
7 August.
Indian Ocean 5.8 7.32am
New Britain 5.8 6.26pm
The isolated Mag 5 quake trend continued on 7 August.
Good location success at New Britain but the Indian Ocean 5.8 was in a very low confidence location.
Volcanos were quiet.
Solar conditions steadily weakened on 7 August but may have enough energy left on 8 August to drive a late isolated quake.
Typhoon Noru news is sparse and vague. The storm never got past Cat 1 but was always more likely to be a rain bomb.
Banda Sea is higher risk Mag 6 location.

Summary.
5 August.
Southern Philippines 5.8 12.30pm
6 August.
Southwest of Auckland Island 4.6 10.42am
Makira/Eastern Solomon Islands 5.7 12.15pm
Eruption Shiveluch.
7 August.
Indian Ocean 5.8 7.32am
New Britain 5.8 6.26pm
Eruption Bogoslof, Fuego.
8 August.
Kermadec Islands 5.1 1.24am
9 August.
Sichuan/China 6.5 1.19am
Kazakhstan 6.3 11.27am
The forecast period started on cue with some location success and quakes getting near Mag 6.
Volcanoes joined the quake action on 7 August. Big eruption at Bogoslof.
Weakening, fluctuating conditions on 8 August were enough to drive isolated late quakes, justifying the difficult decision to extend or close the forecast.
The China 6.5 came early 9 August along with much damage and some casualties.
Little news for the Kazakhstan 6.3.
Typhoon Noru delivered a lot of rain to Japan during the period but the Japanese were well prepared and seem to have kept most of the water out.
A new forecast period begins late 12 August.





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