Aotearoa Summary. 5 August 2017 - 8 August 2017

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Magnitude 4 risk areas are Southern Fiordland, Breaksea Sound, Doubtful Sound, Te Anau, Mount Cook, Arthurs Pass, Culverden, Cheviot, Kaikoura, Seaward Kaikouras, Ward, Cape Campbell, Seddon, South of Wellington, Whitemans Valley, Atiwhakatu Stream, Northern Cook Strait, Western Taranaki Bight, Eketahuna, Dannevirke, Waipukurau, Gisborne, East Cape, Opotiki, Whakatane, Rotorua, Tokoroa, Taumarunui.
Quakes have tended to be just under Mag 4 but good location in recent forecasts.
The Mag 3 trend may continue.
Quakes may begin late 4 August.
Volcanoes quiet.

Update. 5 August 10.30pm
5 August.
Atiamuri 4.4 5.21pm
Solar conditions arrived on cue.
Quakes followed on a weak trend.
The forecast period is extended to 6 August.
Isolated Mag 4 activity is possible.

Update. 7 August 12.00am
6 August.
West of Kaikoura 4.2 6.54am
West of Gisborne 3.9 10.06am
Southwest of Auckland Island 4.6 10.42am
Local quakes were slightly busy on 6 August.
Solar quake driving conditions were steady but weakening.
The forecast period is extended to 7 August.
Isolated Mag 4 activity is possible next two days as the forecast period closes.

Update. 7 August 1.00pm
Local quakes were quiet on 7 August.
Weakening solar conditions suggest the period may have ended in New Zealand although equatorial regions may be active on 8 August.

Summary.
5 August.
Atiamuri 4.4 5.21pm
6 August.
West of Kaikoura 4.2 6.54am
West of Gisborne 3.9 10.06am
Southwest of Auckland Island 4.6 10.42am
8 August.
Upper Wairau Vallley 4.1 5.03pm
This forecast had some good successes.
Quakes were busy and in risk locations early in the period.
Local quakes faded on 7 August although a late quake came through on 8 August.
Late isolated quakes always make for a difficult decision about when the period is actually closing.
Weather in New Zealand is mild but wet, confounding NIWA long range weather forecasters who changed their August forecast to cold and wet following very cold wet weather in July which also didn't match their forecast profile.
There is no hope that standard meteorology can ever come to a correct long range outlook until they accept that the sun is the driver of weather.
The astrophysicists, taking 300 years of astronomical and meteorological observations, said back in 2008 that the second mini ice age in 300 years was coming. Droughts, storms, hail, tornadoes, deluges, hot, cold. They are exactly right.
A new forecast period begins late 12 August.



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