Pacific Summary. 13 August 2017 - 15 August 2017

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Magnitude 6 risk areas are Tonga, Banda Sea, South of Kyushu, South of Honshu, Offshore Oregon, Northern California, Southern Mexico, Peru, South of Titicaca, North of Valparaiso, South Sandwich Islands, Hindu Kush.
Volcanic activity may increase.
Sinabung, Suwanosejima, Sakurajima, Shiveluch.
The forecast period may be extended.

Update. 13 August 10.30pm
13 August.
North of Valparaiso 5.8 12.54am
Southern Sumatra 6.4 3.08pm
Volcanoes quiet.
Java, Southern Alaska are added to Mag 6 risk areas.
Good timing success at the start of the period.
One quake in a forecast location, one in a location from the previous forecast.
Solar quake driving conditions are only moderate so quakes may become infrequent on 14 August.
A quake pickup may occur late 14 August.

Update. 14 August 11.30pm
13 August.
North of Valparaiso 5.8 12.54am
Southern Sumatra 6.4 3.08pm
Volcanoes quiet.
The forecast period is extended to 15 August.
Quakes were only moderate today as solar conditions weakened.
Good location success but low Magnitude.
A weak burst of solar conditions arrived tonight and may drive some late isolated quake or volcano activity as the forecast period closes.
The period has probably ended in New Zealand.
Southeast Honshu is higher risk.

Update. 15 August 6.30am
Kermadec Islands are added to Mag 6 risk areas.

13 August.
North of Valparaiso 5.8 12.54am
Southern Sumatra 6.4 3.08pm
14 August.
Central Peru 5.6 4.51am
15 August.
Northern Tonga 5.7 6.01pm
Eruption Kliuchevskoi, Piton de la Fournaise, Sakurajima.
This forecast had many good points despite very moderate solar driving conditions (common at this time of year).
Quakes barely made it to Mag 6 but the biggest quakes fitted the forecast profile well.
The Southern Sumatra 6.4 was a risk location from the 5-9 August forecast but was dropped from this forecast, a frustrating mistake.
Volcanoes picked up late in the period, including Piton de la Fournaise.
Volcanic action usually follows quake action so eruptions typically come late or soon after a quake period.
Heavy rain in Sierra Leone caused a hillside to collapse with many people buried.
The West Asia Monsoon has delivered a very heavy dose of rain to the Himalayan Foothills, leaving many villages underwater and millions of people displaced.
Christchurch got some very heavy rain.
Canterbury skifield operators watched with glee as half a meter of powder snow fell on top of earlier snowfalls making this the best ski season for a long time.
Standard meteorologists realise the global warming story doesn't fit so the catchcry is changing from "climate warming" to "climate change."
Little Ice Age weather fluctuations are being hijacked into the global warming political agenda but it is a square peg bashed awkwardly into a round hole.
More volcano info is posted at Facebook/Roary Arbon.

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