Aotearoa Earthquake and Volcano Forecast Service

Aotearoa Summary. 13 August 2017 - 15 August 2017

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Magnitude 4 risk areas are Doubtful Sound, Breaksea Sound, Northwest Arm Te Anau, Offshore Milford Sound, Upper Hokitika River, Arthurs Pass, Culverden, Cheviot, Kaikoura, Seaward Kaikouras, Ward, Seddon, Cape Campbell, South of Wellington, Northern Cook Strait, Eketahuna, Dannevirke, Waipukurau, East Cape, Opotiki, Whakatane, Rotorua, Taupo, Taumarunui.
Volcanoes quiet.
The period may be extended.

Update. 13 August 11.00pm
13 August.
West of Punakaiki 3.5 3.19pm
Kahurangi is added to Mag 4 risk areas.
A minor quakestorm arrived in New Zealand 11 minutes after the Sumatra 6.4.
Local quakes were otherwise quiet.
Solar conditions arrived on cue but were only strong enough to drive equatorial action.
Local quakes are likely to be infrequent and isolated on 14 August.
A slight quake pickup may occur late 14 August.

Update. 14 August 11.00pm
14 August.
South of Rotorua 3.6 2.06pm
Local quakes were largely quiet on 14 August.
The biggest quake fitted the forecast location profile but low Magnitude.
A weak solar burst has arrived tonight but may not be enough to drive local quakes.
Very cold air has delivered a slight deluge in Christchurch and a big powder snowfall to Canterbury high country, typical cold wet Little Ice Age weather conditions.

Summary.
13 August.
West of Punakaiki 3.5 3.19pm
14 August.
South of Rotorua 3.6 2.06pm
17 August.
Northern Kahurangi 4.3 8.26am
Quakes went west during the period.
The late addition of rarely forecasted Kahurangi was probably justified.
The 17 August Kahurangi 4.3 came in the following forecast period but by then the location was dropped, a forecasting mistake.
Solar conditions were never strong during the period and New Zealand quakes were largely quiet 15-16 August although other Pacific regions and volcanoes were active.