Aotearoa Summary. 17 August 2017 - 26 August 2017

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Magnitude 4 risk areas are Fiordland, Offshore Milford Sound, Central Cook Strait, Upper Hutt, Gisborne, East Cape.
Location confidence = low.
Volcanoes quiet.

Update. 17 August 1.30pm
17 August.
Lake Okataina 4.0 5.30am
Kahurangi 4.3 8.26am
Atiamuri, Taupo, Taumarunui, Opotiki, Whakatane, South Taranaki, North Taranaki Bight, Ward, Cape Campbell, Seaward Kaikouras, Culverden, Kaikoura are added to Mag 4 risk areas.
The forecast period has started on cue.
Low location confidence was justified, quakes came outside risk locations.
The rarely forecasted Kahurangi location was dropped too early from the previous 13-15 August risk locations, a forecasting mistake.
The initial quake burst has gone through so it is possible Mag 4 quakes will now become isolated during the reminder of the period.
The period will be extended.
Local and Pacific quakes are struggling to reach the Mag 4/Mag 6 thresholds in August.
September and October may bring stronger conditions.

Update. 18 August 12.00am
The forecast period is extended to 18 August.
Local quakes went quiet after the morning burst on 17 August.
Solar quake driving conditions picked up tonight so quakes may follow.
Isolated quakes may struggle to reach Mag 4.

Update. 19 August 12.00am
18 August.
Atiamuri 4.1 8.08am
The addition of Atiamuri and other areas to risk locations is justified.
Quakes are becoming isolated as the period progresses.
Solar quake driving conditions were steady today.
A buildup is possible.
Isolated Mag 4 quake activity is possible 19-21 August.
A pickup is possible on 22-23 August before quakes fade away 24 August.

Update. 19 August 11.30pm
19 August.
Rotorua 3.6 4.24am
Ward 3.9 8.57am
Cape Campbell 3.5 11.43am
North of Gisborne 3.6 2.07pm
Dannevirke 4.5 7.39pm
Local quakes were moving steadily along today.
Good location success in most places.
The decision to exclude North Wairarapa as a risk location when Kermadecs were Mag 6 risk and active was a mistake.
More Mag 4 activity seems possible in Dannevirke later in the period.
Solar conditions may be steady again on 20 August producing more isolated quakes.
A pickup is possible 22-23 August before quakes fade away 24 August.

Update. 21 August 12.00am
20 August.
North of Waverley 3.8 6.12am
Northeast of Motiti Island 3.9 11.46am
Quakes eased a little on 20 August, falling below Mag 4 and lower frequency.
Action is moving to the North Island following the Fiji 6.4 and other quakes further north of New Zealand.
Solar quake driving conditions are steady but quakes infrequent.
A slow buildup is possible.
Quakes may remain subdued on 21 August but isolated Mag 4 activity seems likely.
A quake pickup is possible 22-23 August.

Update. 21 August 11.00pm
21 August.
Northeast of East Cape 5.1 11.37am
Southeast of Opotiki 3.7 11.38am?
Biggest Pacific quake today was just north of New Zealand.
Local quakes were otherwise subdued.
Steady solar conditions still seem to be in a buildup phase.
Solar conditions may pickup late 22 August as the end of the quake period approaches.
East Cape is higher risk.

Update. 22 August 11.30pm
21 August.
Northeast of East Cape 5.1 11.37am
Southeast of Opotiki 3.7 11.38am?
Local quakes were subdued on 22 August.
A buildup could still be underway.
Fiji, Tonga and Kermadecs have been most active Pacific quake locations during the period so far.
A solar pickup is possible on 23 August.
North Island Mag 4 activity seems possible on 23 August.

Update. 23 August 10.30pm
The 17-23 August quake period has probably ended.
We're receiving some contradictory data from two different satellites measuring the same solar data....one dataset must be wrong.
Pacific quakes are subdued on 23 August.
A summary will be posted later.

Summary.
17 August.
Lake Okataina 4.0 5.30am
Kahurangi 4.3 8.26am
18 August.
Atiamuri 4.1 8.08am
19 August.
Rotorua 3.6 4.24am
Ward 3.9 8.57am
Cape Campbell 3.5 11.43am
North of Gisborne 3.6 2.07pm
Dannevirke 4.5 7.39pm
20 August.
North of Waverley 3.8 6.12am
Northeast of Motiti Island 3.9 11.46am
21 August.
Northeast of East Cape 5.1 11.37am
Southeast of Opotiki 3.7 11.38am?
22 August.
Northeast of East Cape 3.9 1.14pm
23 August.
Northeast of East Cape 4.5 11.29pm
24 August.
Northeast of East Cape 4.6 12.07am
25 August.
Northeast of Hanmer 4.4 2.48pm
26 August.
White Island 4.1 5.50pm
The period began on cue.
Leaving out the regularly forecasted Rotorua, Volcanic Plateau and North Wairarapa was a mistake, the forecast became overfocussed on other areas.
The locations were added following the Okataina 4.0 and the Atiamuri 4.1 followed, giving some redemption to the forecast.
The rarely forecasted Kahurangi featured on the previous 13-15 August forecast but no quake came then so the the location was dropped, a forecast mistake...Murphys Law.
Quakes remained steady next two days near Mag 4 with some location success.
Northeast of East Cape 5.1 was the biggest Pacific quake on 21 August.
Solar conditions were fading on 22 August but Bay of Plenty/East Cape/NE of East Cape remained active following the big quake from the previous day.
The outlook for North Island Mag 4 quakes on 23 August was justified.
The forecast was dropped on 24 August but extending Bay of Plenty/Northeast of East Cape would have made good sense as the area rumbled on for another couple of days.
A new quake period begins early on 29 August.







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