Pacific Summary. 17 August 2017 - 27 August 2017

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Magnitude 6 risk areas are Banda Sea, Southern Sumatra, Molucca Sea, Taiwan, Ryuku Islands, Southern Honshu, South of Anchorage, South of Valdivia, Western Himalayas.
Volcanic activity may increase.
Sinabung, Kliuchevskoi, Shiveluch.

Update. 17 August 1.15pm
17 August.
Ryuku Islands 5.7 12.51am
Kermadec Islands, Southern Tonga, Northern Vanuatu, Santa Cruz Islands are added to Mag 6 risk locations.
The forecast period began on cue and with good location success.
The period seems to be similar to recent quake periods, quakes are barely making Mag 6.
Quake periods may gain strength in September and October.
The period is likely to be extended for several days with isolated activity.

Update. 17 August 11.30pm
Eruption Sakurajima.
Japan is the hotspot for quakes and eruptions.
Solar quake driving conditions have picked up tonight and quakes seem likely in short bursts.
Quakes may still struggle to reach Mag 6.

Update. 19 August 12.00am
18 August.
Mid Atlantic Ocean 6.6 2.59pm
Eruption Sakurajima.
Titicaca is added to Mag 6 risk areas.
A big isolated quake on 18 August matches the forecast profile.
The North of Ascension Island 6.6 was in a remote ocean location so no damage.
Solar conditions seem likely to be steady for a few days yet..
A quake buildup is possible.
More isolated Mag 6 quakes seem possible 19-21 August.
A late quake burst is possible 22-23 August before quakes fade away 24 August.
Volcanoes apparently quiet early in the quake period apart from Sakurajima which has erupted twice in two days.
Tonga is a higher risk location.

Update. 20 August 12.00am
19 August.
Kermadec Islands 5.2 6.52am
Banda Sea 5.5 9.00am
Fiji 6.4 2.00pm
Eruption San Cristobal, Fuego.
Three biggest Pacific quakes in or near risk locations.
The Fiji 6.4 was very deep and not felt at the surface.
Latin America volcanoes are hot.
Small eruption at Fuego and a large ash emission at San Cristobal.
Solar quake driving conditions seem likely to be steady on 20-21 August ahead of the 22-23 August pickup.

Update. 21 August 12.00am
20 August.
Eruption Suwanosejima.
Baja California, Northern Caribbean Sea are added to Mag 6 risk areas.
Pacific quakes and volcanoes were generally quiet on 20 August.
Solar quake driving conditions are steady.
A slow buildup may be underway.
Quakes seem likely to be infrequent on 21 August although isolated Mag 6 activity is possible.
Pacific quakes seem likely to be isolated
A pickup is possible 22-23 August.

Update. 21 August 11.30pm
South of Kermadecs 5.1 11.37am
Eruption Sakurajima, Fuego.
Marianas Islands are added to Mag 6 risk areas.
Biggest Pacific quake today was just north of New Zealand.
Pacific quakes were subdued, meeting the forecast profile.
Volcanoes were active.
The eruption of Fuego dropped a lot of ash on several villages.
Sakurajima is erupting daily and an easy forecast pick at the moment.
The eruption of Piton de la Fournaise began on 14 July and may be ending.
Solar conditions may increase late 22 August or early 23 August with a corresponding quake pickup before fading on 24 August.

Update. 22 August 11.00pm
Northern Tonga 5.4 9.12am
Quakes were under Mag 6 on 22 August and subdued.
The biggest quake was just outside the Southern Tonga risk location.
Volcanoes apparently quiet. More data may come later.
Quakes may pickup on 23 August as the quake period closes.

Update. 23 August 10.30pm
The 17-23 August quake period has probably ended.
We're receiving some contradictory data from two different satellites measuring the same solar data....one dataset must be wrong.
Pacific quakes are subdued on 23 August.
A summary will be posted later.

Summary.
17 August.
Ryuku Islands 5.7 12.51am
Eruption Sakurajima.
18 August.
Mid Atlantic Ocean 6.6 2.59pm
Eruption Sakurajima.
19 August.
Kermadec Islands 5.2 6.52am
Banda Sea 5.5 9.00am
Fiji 6.4 2.00pm
Eruption San Cristobal, Fuego.
20 August.
Eruption Suwanosejima, Sakurajima.
21 August.
South of Kermadecs 5.1 11.37am
Eruption Sakurajima, Fuego.
22 August.
Northern Tonga 5.4 9.12am
23 August.
Eruption Kliuchevskoi.
24 August.
Eruption Sakurajima
26 August.
Northern Vanuatu 5.1
Eruption Bogoslof
27 August.
Java 5.5
Bismarck Sea 6.4
Eruption Sinabung.
The period started on cue with quake action in the Ryuku Islands and an eruption of Sakurajima on nearby Kyushu.
Sakurajima continued erupting daily right right through the period.
The 18 August Atlantic Ocean 6.6 met the profile for isolated big quakes but mid ocean quakes are hard to predict and the next forecasting challenge, no location success.
Adding Kermadecs and Southern Tonga to risk areas after the period began was justified on 19 August. Tonga was given as higher risk, the nearby Fiji 6.4 followed. Quakes were meeting location targets.
Latin America volcanoes erupted on 19 August.
Many volcanoes erupted or were throwing ash during the period...too many to list.
Volcanoes may dominate quakes for the next few years.
Suwanosejima and nearby Sakurajima erupted on 20 August.
The 21 August South of Kermadecs 5.1 kept Bay of Plenty and further north very busy for several more days.
The 21 August Great American Solar Eclipse crossed the USA without any earthquakes, giant tsunamis, Second Coming of Jesus etc.
Baja California and North Caribbean Sea were added on 21 August as Mag 6 risk areas but the locations were quiet.
Quakes faded on 22 August but eruptions usually follow quakes and the period was no exception...volcanoes were erupting or throwing ash.
A brief 4 minute eruption at Bogoslof on 26 August was very explosive.
The 27 August Bismarck Sea 6.4 has fallen between two quake periods.
A new quake period begins 29 August.
September and October are typically busier months for quake and volcano activity.
Typhoon Hato crossed Hong Kong and Macau on 23 August with dramatic flooding. The East Asia Monsoon this year is a wet one.
Big weather systems seem to be trending lower on the Cat 1-5 wind scale with the onset of solar driven Little Ice Age climate conditions but the amount of water they are holding seems to be increasing.








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