Pacific Summary. 2 September 2017 - 5 September 2017

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Magnitude 6 risk locations are Vanuatu, Santa Cruz Islands, Guadalcanal, Bougainville, New Britain, East Java, Bali, Celebes Sea, South of Philippines, Guam, Central Kuril Islands, Southern Alaska, Southern Mexico, Guatemala, El Salvador, Costa Rica, Eastern Caribbean Sea, North of Titicaca, South of Titicaca, Hindu Kush, Karakoram.
Magnitude 4 risk location is Northern Europe..
Volcanic activity may increase.
Ambrym, Sinabung, Sakurajima, Suwanosejima, Kliuchevskoi, Fuego, Poas, Turrialba.
The forecast period is likely to be extended.

Update. 3 September 12.30pm
2 September.
Sunda Strait/West Java 5.1 3.32pm
Eruption Sakurajima, Ebeko.
3 September.
Northeast of Guam 5.5 11.09am
Quakes were subdued on 2 September.
The biggest quake was in West Java, reflecting the forecast move into Java but risk location profiles were too narrow.
Volcanoes continue to throw ash in numbers...if they're not erupting then they are pluming.
The ever increasing low level volcanic activity seems likely to have weather implications.
Quakes have strengthened on 3 September.
Moderate steady solar quake driving conditions continue on 3 September.
Excellent location success in Guam.
Continuing isolated Mag 6 activity is possible.
Tonga, Baja California are added to Mag 6 risk areas.
The forecast map header should read 2 September, not 2 August.
The forecast description incorrectly gives Celebes Sea as a risk location. The correct location, Molucca Sea is on the forecast map.
Forecasts are unavailable at until a minor technical problem is fixed.

Update. 3 September 11.00pm
Eruption Kliuchevskoi.
The forecast period is extended to 4 September.
Solar quake driving conditions are weakening as the forecast period closes.
Isolated Mag 6 activity and eruptions are possible on 4 September.

2 September.
Sunda Strait/West Java 5.1 3.32pm
Eruption Sakurajima, Ekeko.
3 September.
Northeast of Guam 5.5 11.09am
Eruption Sakurajima, Kliuchevskoi.
4 September.
South Sandwich Islands 6.0 8.07pm
Eruption Fernandina, Sakurajima.
5 September.
Vanuatu 5.5 2.50pm
Quakes were sluggish early in the forecast period.
The West Java 5.1 was biggest quake on 2 September.
Volcanoes were active right from the start of the period.
Two new volcanoes erupting now in addition to many constantly pluming.
Volcanic emissions seem likely to add to the cooling effect being felt across the planet for many years to come.
Quakes were picking up on 3 September.
Northeast of Guam 5.5 was biggest and excellent location success in a difficult forecast location.
Extending the period to 4 September was justified.
South Sandwich Islands 6.0 was the biggest quake of the period but no location success.
Galapagos Islands shield volcano Fernandina erupted and is highly likely to be fountaining lava and to increase on 8 September.
The forecast period had ended by 5 September but quakes continued to be active.
The Vanuatu 5.5 reflected very moderate but persistent solar quake driving conditions throwing up very isolated quakes.
The August outlook for quakes and volcanos to pick up in September looks like happening.
A strong quake period is due 8 September and a big Southwest Pacific volcano may add to the ever growing list of active volcanoes.

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