Pacific Summary. 8 September 2017 - 9 September 2017
(Posted on Facebook/Roary Arbon, 7 September, 2017 8.48am) A detailed forecast will be posted later today. Very strong solar quake, volcano and weather driving conditions are likely for several days. Eruptions are possible on new volcanoes, adding to the already long list of active volcanoes. Action is more likely later in the period. Quakes are possible soon. New Zealand could be a risk location. Weather is already storming due to early ionospheric effects. Weather systems will power up on 8 September. Meteorologists are forecasting Cat 5 Hurricane Irma to weaken to Cat 4 as it crosses onto Southern Florida at Miami on Saturday. Major flooding is forecast. This Service is watching for Irma not to weaken but maintain strength at Cat 5. Little Ice Age weather patterns indicate a jetstream shift on 8 September which will move the stationary high pressure north of Irma and cause Irma to possibly track northward against standard meteorological predictions. The sun is the driver of weather, quakes and eruptions on Earth. Thanks. Update. 7 September 9.30pm Magnitude 6 risk areas are Kermadec Islands, Tonga, Vanuatu, Santa Cruz Islands, Southern Banda Sea, Northern Sumatra, Hokkaido, Southern Kuril Islands, Southern Mexico, Guatemala, El Salvador, South of Titicaca, North of Valparaiso, Iran. Volcanic activity may increase. Pacaya, Santiaguito, Bogoslof, Kliuchevskoi, Sakurajima, Suwanosejima, Sinabung, Ambrym. Standard meteorological forecasts show Hurricane Harvey weakening to Cat 4 and crosing Miami on Saturday. Solar weather driving conditions may cause a jetstream shift, turning Harvey northward before it hits Florida and crossing onto land towards Georgia. The storm may also maintain Cat 5 strength. Heavy flooding seems likely in Southeast USA. Cat 2 Hurricane Jose is following close behind Hurricane Harvey on the same track. Hurricane Jose is also likely to power up to another major storm in the Eastern Caribbean. The forecast period is likely to be extended for several days. Update. 8 September 11.00pm 8 September. Bonin Islands 6.1 5.26am Eruption Sakurajima. Southeastern Honshu, South of Kyushu are added to Mag 6 risk areas. Solar quake, volcano and weather driving conditions were strong overnight. Solar conditions are increasing to high storm as this update is posted. Kermadec Islands are higher Mag 6 risk. Hurricane Irma is very likely to stay Mag 5 against standard meteorological forecasts for it to drop to Cat 4. The storm path is still directly towards Florida. The storm is flattening every Caribbean island it passes over. Weather and tectonic events next few days could be extreme. Update. 9 September 2.00am 8 September. Bonin Islands 6.1 5.26am Offshore Southern Mexico 8.1 4.49pm Eruption Sakurajima, Sinabung, Kliuchevskoi. Molucca Sea is added to Mag 6 risk areas. Piton de la Fournaise, Ambae are added to volcanoes. The forecast is speaking for itself. The big Mexico 8.1 has created much damage and taken lives. Three hurricanes in the Caribbean confirm once again that weather, quakes and eruptions are linked. Strong solar conditions are likely to continue until late 11 September when another very big solar peak is expected. Hurricane Irma has remained at Cat 5 today. Standard forecasts for Irma are slowly changing to match those of this Service...the storm will maintain intensity. Watch out for Irma to maintain strength and possibly turn north before it hits Florida. Hurricane Jose is following the same track as Irma and is also powering up. Jose could flatten whatever Irma hasn't already levelled as it passes through the Caribbean next few days. Hurricane Katia is pushing into Mexico, gaining strength and close to the Mexico 8.1. Weather and quakes are linked. A big aftershock to the Mexico 8.1 seems very likely soon. Japan is higher Mag 6 risk on 9 September. Volcanoes are firing up and may dominate as the forecast period advances. Vulcanologists at Piton de la Fournaise are warning the volcano is inflating. Vanuatu seismologists report Ambae is hot in addition to nearby Ambrym. Big action next few days seems very likely. Summary. 8 September. Bonin Islands 6.1 5.26am Offshore Southern Mexico 8.1 4.49pm Eruption Sakurajima, Sinabung, Kliuchevskoi. 9 September. Eruption Shiveluch. The forecast period is one to remember, like 17 April 2016. The big solar shock arrived on cue, leading to the biggest global quake since the September 16, 2015 Chile 8.3. The shock passed through quickly, against expectations. 9 September solar conditions, quakes and volcanoes were quiet. News was heavily focussed on Cat 5 Hurricane Irma and two other Hurricanes in the Caribbean. The bigger news was the flattening of Oaxaca, Chiapas and Tabasco regions of Southern Mexico with the big quake...100 people killed, infrastructure destroyed and 2 million left homeless. Three big storms, one earthquake in close proximity is more than coincidence. The attempted forecast for Hurricane Irma had some merit. Irma stayed Cat 5 as forecast and against standard forecasts. Major devastation on Outer Caribbean islands. Irma lost strength when it ran into Cuba but bounced along the coast and back out to sea. Irma kept tracking west instead of turning north as forecasted. Hurricane Jose, following close behind Hurrican Irma also got powered up to Cat 4 by angry sunspot AR12673 against standard meteorology forecasts but luckily tracked north, just missing some islands already flattened by Hurricane Irma. The forecast period is some evidence for the long term outlook made in 2013 for "bigger quakes, spaced apart". Aotearoa Earthquake and Volcano Forecast Service © 2013 - 2024 |
