Aotearoa Summary. 11 September 2017 - 15 September 2017

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Magnitude 5 risk areas are Fiordland, Offshore Milford Sound, Culverden, Seaward Kaikouras.
Magnitude 4 risk areas are Upper Hokitika River, Ward, Cape Campbell, South of Wellingiton, Upper Hutt, Atiwhakatu Stream, Eketahuna, Dannevirke, Waipukurau, South Taranaki, Taumarunui, Taupo, Tokoroa, Rotorua, Whakatane, Opotiki, East Cape.
Volcanos quiet.
Forecast confidence=low.

Update. 12 September 12.00am
11 September.
Doubtful Sound 4.0 8.56pm
The forecast period is extended to 12 September.
Quakes were very moderate on 11 September.
Sunspot AR12673 fired a massive X8.2 flare with the possibility of another big shock.
The shock hasn't yet arrived, justifying low confidence.
A shock arrival is still possible on 12 September.
Fiordland is higher risk.

Update. 12 September 11.30pm
12 September.
Eketahuna 3.9 7.10pm
Solar conditions have slightly picked up late on 12 September but its not what the forecast is looking for.
Low forecast confidence continues.
A strong brief solar shock could still arrive on 13 September.
Several other background factors following the big 10 September X8 Class X-ray solar flare indicate hanging onto the forecast for another day is a good idea.

Update. 14 September 12.00am
Local quakes were quiet on 13 September.
A weak solar shock from angry sunspot AR12673 arrived on cue.
Quakes never followed.
New solar quake driving conditions from another solar region are due about now.
The non arrival of quakes on 13 September indicates a possible pressure buildup which new solar conditions may trigger.
Note. Lake Grassmere 4.2 12.17am occurs as this forecast is being posted.

Update. 14 September 9.45pm
14 September.
Milford Sound 4.0 5.23pm
Good location success on a fading outlook.
Solar conditions are weakening steadily as sunspot AR12673 moves on.
Mag 4 quakes seem unlikely on 15 September although a few minor indicators persist following the big solar storm.

Update. 14 September 11.15pm
A late burst of solar activity has arrived just after the last update...we're going to give it one more day.
The forecast period is extended to 15 September.
Risk locations and magnitudes are unchanged.

Summary.
11 September.
Doubtful Sound 4.0 8.56pm
12 September.
Eketahuna 3.9 7.10pm
14 September.
Lake Grassmere 4.2 12.17am
Milford Sound 4.0 5.23pm
15 September.
Atiamuri 3.5 10.33pm
17 September.
Rotorua 4.4 2.35pm
This forecast got ahead of some Fiordland action.
A second solar shock from sunspot AR12673 arrived on cue 12 September but was weak, justifying low confidence.
Sluggish quake activity followed over the next two days, less than Mag 5 risk but excellent location success.
New solar conditions forecasted for 14 September arrived very late, prompting a quick forecast extension.
The solar conditions were moderate, not driving much local quake activity but the biggest, Atiamuri 3.5 was in a risk location.
Quakes have largely gone quiet on 16-17 September.
A quake pickup is possible on 18 September.
The 18 September pickup may be volcanic in the Pacific.




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