Pacific Summary. 11 September 2017 - 15 September 2017

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Magnitude 6 risk areas are Kermadec Islands, Northern Tonga, Vanuatu, South Banda Sea, Molucca Sea, Northern Ryuku Islands, Southeastern Honshu, Hokkaido, Southern Kuril Islands, Offshore Oregon, Southern Mexico, Dominica, Titicaca, South of Titicaca.
Volcanic activity may increase.
Bogoslof, Shiveluch, Sakurajima, Suwanosejima, Sinabung.
Forecast confidence=low.

Update. 12 September 12.00am
11 September.
Northern Atlantic Ocean 5.9 9.40am
Eruption Sakurajima.
Quakes were generally very quiet on 11 September.
Sunspot AR12673 fired another massive X8.9 flare today.
The shock hasn't yet arrived, justifying low confidence.
A shock arrival is possible on 12 September.
Quakes and eruptions could follow.
Hurricane Irma is weakening.

Update. 13 September 12.00am
12 September.
Bonin Islands 5.6 5.35am
Pacific quakes were quiet today.
Volcanoes were apparently quiet.
Solar quake driving conditions were also quiet, no sign of any brief strong solar shock arrival.
Low forecast confidence continues.
A solar shock could still arrive on 13 September.
Solar conditions are far from settled following the 10 September X8 solar flare.
Hurricane Irma weakened dramatically along with solar conditions as it crossed onto Florida, USA.
The hurricane is now recognised as weaker than several other historic USA storms.
The real damage from Irma was earlier on the outer Caribbean Islands when it was Cat 5.
Despite the death and destruction from Hurricane Irma the greater tragedy is in Southern Mexico following the 8 September 8.1 rumble...2 million homeless and a hundred dead.

Update. 14 September 12.00am
13 September.
Southern Mexico 5.2
A weak solar shock arrived on 13 September but quakes and eruptions haven't followed.
Good timing success keeping up with the furious action from departing sunspot AR12673.
New solar conditions are due to arrive about now so quakes on 14 September are possible.
Kermadec Islands are higher risk.

Update. 14 September 10.00pm
13 September.
Southern Mexico 5.2
Pacific quakes were quiet on 14 September.
Moderate volcanic action as the forecast period closes.
The new solar conditions never arrived.
Quakes, if any, seem more likely in Java, Southern Sumatra on 15 September.
Volcanic activity is weak.
Sinabung possible eruption 15 September.

Update. 14 September 11.30pm
A late burst of solar activity arrived just after the last update was posted.
The forecast period is extended to 15 September.
East Java, Central Sumatra are added to Mag 6 risk areas.
Sinabung is higher eruption risk.
Activity is likely to be isolated.

Summary.
11 September.
Northern Atlantic Ocean 5.9 9.40am
Eruption Sakurajima.
12 September.
Bonin Islands 5.6 5.35am
13 September.
Southern Mexico 5.2
Eruption Sakurajima.
14 September.
Eruption Fuego, Sinabung, Shiveluch.
15 September.
Agrihan/Northern Marianas Islands 5.6 5.41am
Eruption Sinabung.
16 September.
Eruption Zhupanovsky.
Solar conditions were very weak following the 8 September solar shock and Hurricane Irma and Mexico 8.1 quake.
Hurricane Irma weakened to low Cat 4 and quakes were quiet.
A forecasted second solar shock from sunspot AR12673 arrived slightly later than expected and much weaker than the earlier shock.
Low forecast confidence was justified, the solar conditions were too weak to drive much quake activity.
Moderate volcanic activity through the period, increasing near the end as usual.
New solar conditions forecasted for 14 September arrived a day late but strong and steady.
The biggest Pacific quake, Agrihan 5.6 wasn't in a risk location.
No forecast was offered for 16-17 September, quakes are quiet.
Isolated quakes or eruptions may pick up on 18 September.







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