Aotearoa Earthquake and Volcano Forecast Service

Aotearoa Summary. 18 September 2017 - 20 September 2017

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Magnitude 4 risk locations are Doubtful Sound, Lake Te Anau, Milford Sound, Culverden, Southwest of Kaikoura, Ward, Seddon, Cape Campbell, Eketahuna, Dannevirke, East Cape, Opotiki, Rotorua, Tokoroa, Taupo, Taumarunui.
Local quakes are likely to be isolated, the forecast is mostly chasing Pacific volcanoes.
Volcanoes quiet.
The forecast period is likely to be extended.

Update. 18 September 11.30pm
Local quakes were quiet on 18 September.
Steady solar conditions indicate a slight pressure buildup.
Isolated local Mag 4 quakes seem possible on 19 September.

Update. 19 September 11.00pm
Local quakes were quiet on 19 September.
The forecast period has probably ended in New Zealand.

Summary.
20 September.
Northeast of East Cape 4.8 11.05am
250 Km West of Auckland Island 6.1 1.43pm
30 km Northeast of Seddon 5.1 2.42pm
The forecasters were left wondering if quakes would come to New Zealand after two quiet days during the period.
Ominously big quakes to the north, south and in between have come late in the period.
The Auckland Island 6.1 wasn't felt in Southland.
The Cook Strait 5.1 was widely felt in Wellington, Nelson and Blenheim.
Seismologists explained there was no link between the quakes which were just an hour apart.
There is an obvious link.
The strong solar conditions last night also drove the Mexico 7.1.
Solar conditions steadily weakened as the day progressed but still above the threshold to drive isolated quakes for another day.
New map for 21 September.