Aotearoa Summary. 21 September 2017 - 22 September 2017

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Magnitude 4 risk areas are Snares Islands, Fiordland, Culverden, Hanmer, Seaward Kaikouras, South of St Arnaud, Awatere Valley, Seddon, Ward, Cape Campbell, Northeast of Seddon, Wellington, Upper Hutt, Eketahuna, Dannevirke, Waipukurau, East Cape, Opotiki, Whakatane, Rotorua, Tokoroa, Taumarunui.
Volcanoes quiet.
Magnitude confidence=low.
The period is likely to end on 21 September.
A new quake period begins on 25 September with similar locations but possibly higher magnitude risk.

Update. 21 September 11.30pm
21 September.
Big Bay 4.3 7.47am
The extension of Fiordland risk locations further north to Milford Sound is justiifed.
Solar quake driving conditions steadily weakened on 21 September.
Very isolated residual local quakes are possible 22 September.
The period is closing.

Summary.
21 September.
Big Bay 4.3 7.47am
22 September.
Milford Sound 4.2 7.02am
North of East Cape 4.1 7.46pm
The addition of Milford Sound was further justified as residual quakes rumbled on into 22 September before going quiet.
The 53 day ahead forecast for quiet weather and quake conditions on 23 September, NZ Election Day worked.
A new quake period is due early 25 September and could be stronger in the Southern Hemisphere.


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