Aotearoa Summary. 29 September 2017 - 3 October 2017

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Aotearoa Forecast. 29 September-1 October, 2017.
Magnitude 6 risk areas are Doubtful Sound, Lake Te Anau, Lower Hollyford Valley, Pyke River, Cascade River, Arawhata River, Haast.
Magnitude 5 risk areas are Milford Sound, Southern Fiordland, Northeast of Seddon, East Cape, Tokomaru Bay, Opotiki, Whakatane, Rotorua, Urewera, Tokoroa, Taumarunui.
Magnitude 4 risk areas are Fox Glacier, Motueka, Hanmer, Culverden, Kaikoura, Ward, Lower Awatere Valley, Cape Campbell, Wellington, Hutt Valley, Eketahuna, Dannevirke, Waipukurau, Napier, Southwest of Wanganui.
Strong solar quake driving conditions are likely to persist for several days.
A pressure buildup over several days is possible in New Zealand.
Isolated high magnitude quakes are possible.
Possibility steam activity at White Island late in the period.
Quakes before 2.00pm are posted on the previous forecast map, 28 September.

Update. 1 October 2.00am
30 September
Northeast of East Cape 5.2 7.34pm
The outlook for isolated high magnitude quakes is justified.
The East Cape 5.2 was felt along the East Coast as far as Napier.
The forecast period seems likely to run for two more days.
Isolated high magnitude quakes are possible as the period closes.
The end of long quake periods are usually more active than the middle.

Update. 1 October 11.00pm
1 October.
South of Kermadecs 4.8 9.08am
Isolated high magnitude quakes are defining the period so far in New Zealand.
Solar conditions were steady today on a slow windup.
Isolated high magnitude quakes seem possible on 2 October.
Levin is added to Mag 4 risk locations.
Central North Island is heating slightly.
Minor quake swarms are possible in Turangi, Taupo, Rotorua.

Update. 2 October 12.00pm
2 October.
South of Kermadecs 4.5 7.32am
More action north of New Zealand today in Kermadecs and Tonga.
Solar conditions are steadily weakening and may fall below the threshold for quakes to occur by early 3 October.
Isolated high magnitude late quakes are slightly possible 2 October.
Pacific activity is mostly volcanic during the period.
Possibility for local Mag 6 quakes = low.

Update. 3 October 1.30am
2 October.
South of Kermadecs 4.5 7.32am
Cape Campbell 4.3 7.00pm
3 October.
North of Tauranga 4.3 12.50am
The beginning and end of quake periods are the busiest.
Late quakes have come as the period is about to close.
Weakening solar conditions are on the threshold for driving quakes.
A very late isolated residual Mag 4 quake is possible on 3 October.

Summary.
30 September
Northeast of East Cape 5.2 7.34pm
1 October.
South of Kermadecs 4.8 9.08am
2 October.
South of Kermadecs 4.5 7.32am
Cape Campbell 4.3 7.00pm
Rotorua 2.6
3 October.
North of Tauranga 4.3 12.50am
This forecast got a little messy at the beginning of the period.
Solar conditions arrived early, before a forecast was posted.
Early quakes are posted on the 28-29 Summary Map.
A forecast was eventually posted and had some good points.
The outlook for isolated high Magnitude was possibly justified as quakes rumbled north of New Zealand.
The high Magnitude outlook for Fiordland was a flop, quakes had already gone through before the forecast was posted.
The 1 October outlook for some Rotorua action was justified, the 2 October shallow Rotorua 2.6 gave the city a good jolt.
Retaining the forecast as solar conditions fell away late in the period was justified.
Quake periods are often busiest at the beginning and the end.
The 2 October Cook Strait 4.3 was widely felt in Blenheim, Nelson and Wellington.
Quakes went quiet after the 3 October Tauranga 4.3.


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