Pacific Summary. 29 September 2017 - 3 October 2017

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Pacific Forecast 29 September-1 October,2017.
Magnitude 6 risk areas are South of New Zealand, Fiordland, South of Kermadecs, Kermadec Islands, South of Fiji, Vanuatu, Bougainville, South Banda Sea, Molucca Sea, Celebes Sea, Sulu Sea, Southeast of Japan, Nicaragua, Costa Rica, Inland Peru.
Volcanic activity may increase.
Agung, Ambae/Aoba/Lombenben, Lopevi, Sinabung, Sakurajima, Karymsky, Popocatepetl, Fuego, Turrialba.
Persistent strong solar conditions forecasted for the next few days may see a steady quake and eruption buildup towards the end of the period.
The eruption of Lombenben may increase.
Agung is furiously venting steam as it heats up.

Update. 1 October 1.30am
29 October.
Eruption Sinabung, Suwanose jima, Fuego.
30 October.
China 5.5 7.14pm
Eruption Rincon de la Vieja.
Stong solar conditions continue with plenty of spectacular aurorae in the Northern sky.
Volcanoes are dominating the forecast period.
The forecast for an eruption of Fuego was made several hours after the volcano went off....volcano data can be slow coming through.
Latin American volcanoes are hot.
Costa Rica volcano Rincon de la Vieja, not far from Fuego, has also gone off.
The forecast period still has two days to go.
Isolated Pacific quakes are possible.
Eruptions seem more likely than quakes.
The forecast period is extended to 1 October.

Update. 1 October 11.00pm
1 October.
Eruption Turrialba, Santiaguito, Nevados de Chillan, Sakurajima.
Pacific quakes were very subdued on 1 October but volcanoes are hot.
Five Latin America volcanoes have erupted last few days.
Two Japanese volcanoes have erupted during the last day.
Activity on Aoba is slowly building. The Australian Navy is sending a ship to bring supplies and help out with the evacuation of the island.
150 000 people have evacuated from around Agung but the volcano hasn't erupted.
Solar conditions were steady today and likely to be capable of driving eruptions on 2 October.
Inland Ecuador, Northern Colombia, Puerto Rico are added to Mag 6 risk locations.
Volcanoes are likely to dominate quakes during the last day or two of the forecast period.

Update. 2 October 12.00pm
1 October.
Eastern Molucca Sea 5.5 12.15pm
The biggest quake on 1 October was in a forecast location.
Quakes are generally subdued.
Northern Myanmar, Southern Tonga are added to Mag 6 risk areas.
No eruption of Agung overnight. Bali authorities are releasing evacuees back to their villages.
Solar conditions continued to decline steadily overnight and are now just above the threshold for quakes to occur.
Isolated late quakes and eruptions are possible on 2 October.

Update. 3 October. 1.230am
1 October.
Eruption Popocatepetl, Sinabung.
Pacific quakes were very subdued on 2 October.
The period is not inactive, volcanoes are blowing all over.
Late arrival of data reveals two more eruptions on 1 October.
Sinabung apparently erupted four times.
Popocatepetl makes six Latin America volcanoes erupting during the period.
The evacuation of Aoba is underway. The Vanuatu Government is struggling with the task. International agencies are offering help.
Bali authorities have bowed to pressure from the 150 000 people they evacuated from around Agung and have let them return home.
Seismicity at the volcano is still extremely high...an eruption still seems very likely anytime.
Hopefully the volcano will give enough warning for people to get away if it does erupt.
Solar conditions are just on the threshold for quakes and falling.
Big Pacific quakes seem unlikely on 3 October. The forecast period for quakes has probably ended.
Eruptions were quiet on 2 October after the day before being incredibly busy.
Volcanoes may remain active 3 October on a decreasing trend.
Agung is high risk for an eruption.

Summary
29 October.
Eruption Sinabung, Suwanose jima, Fuego.
30 October.
China 5.5 7.14pm
Eruption Rincon de la Vieja, Turrialba, Santiaguito, Nevados de Chillan, Sakurajima.
1 October.
Eastern Molucca Sea 5.5
3 October.
West of Tanna 5.3
Strong solar conditions arrived on cue and volcanoes went boom.
Mass evacuations around Bali volcano Agung and Vanuatu volcano Manaro dominated mainstream news.
Agung was rumbling heavily but no eruption.
Manaro rumbled at a moderate level but no big eruption.
The real news was in Latin America.
Multiple eruptions are following the big 8 September Mexico 8.1.
Popocateptl, Santiaguito, Popocatepetl, Rincon de la Vieja, Turrialba.
Two Japanese volcanoes erupted. Sakurajima, Suwanosejima.
Sinabung erupted four times in a day.
This is the biggest volcanic period observed since 2012 when observations began.
More eruptions seem likely.
Quakes were subdued as usual for a volcanic period.
Good location success, equal biggest quake was in a risk location.
Quakes were quieter than expected late in the period.





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