Aotearoa Earthquake and Volcano Forecast Service

Aotearoa Summary. 6 October 2017 - 9 October 2017

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Magnitude 4 risk areas are Doubtful Sound, Lake Te Anau, Cascade River, Arawhata River, Haast, South of Motueka, Culverden, Hanmer, Kaikoura, Ward, Seddon, Lower Awatere Valley, Cape Campbell, South of Wellington, Upper Hutt, South of Levin, Central Taranaki Bight, Eketahuna, Dannevirke, Waipukurau, East Cape, Opotiki, Whakatane, Rotorua, Taupo, Taumarunui.
The forecast is likely to be extended for several days as solar conditions build up.

Update. 7 October 12.00am
6 October.
North of Snares Islands 3.7 10.23am
Weak solar conditions arrived on cue, steadily strengthening during the day.
Pacific and local action was mostly subdued.
Moderate solar quake driving conditions are expected to continue on 7 October and may bring some quake action.
Snares Islands, Southern Fiordland are added to Mag 4 risk locations.

Update. 7 October 11.30pm
7 October.
South of Kermadecs 5.3 1.16pm
South of Kermadecs 4.9 9.38pm
Northeast of East Cape 4.3 9.57pm
Biggest Pacific action was north of New Zealand and Japan.
Mild but steady solar conditions haven't driven much quake mainland activity.
The period is very volcanic so quakes will generally be subdued.
An expected increase in solar conditions tonight hasn't showed up.
The forecast period is extended to 8 October but may be the last day of the forecast period.

Update. 8 October 11.30pm
8 October.
Olivine River 4.0 3.01pm
Lake Grassmere 3.5 3.21pm
The quake period has probably ended in New Zealand.
A slight solar pickup occurred soon after the last posting and brought some late isolated quakes.
Excellent location success at Olivine River....just a couple of days walk from Cascade River for a fit tramper.
Quakes may drop below Mag 4 until a new quake period begins on 12 October.

Summary.
6 October.
North of Snares Islands 3.7 10.23am
7 October.
South of Kermadecs 5.3 1.16pm
South of Kermadecs 4.9 9.38pm
Northeast of East Cape 4.3 9.57pm
8 October.
Olivine River 4.0 3.01pm
Lake Grassmere 3.5 3.21pm
9 October.
East of Taranaki 3.9 1.17am
East of Taranaki 3.9 9.19am
Cape Campbell 4.1 2.24pm
Increased quake action often comes right at the end of quake periods.
This period was no exception.
Quakes north of New Zealand early in the period were followed by a moderate burst of quakes as the period closed.
Solar conditions were moderate but steady through the period, falling below the threshold for driving quakes late on 9 October.
October is meeting the outlook for a busy quake month so far, auroral activity is also typically busy September/October.
Quakes may remain quiet until early 12 October.
A detailed forecast will be posted later.
Fiordland may be higher risk.