Pacific Summary Updated. 6 October 2017 - 11 October 2017
Volcanic activity may increase. Manaro, Lopevi, Agung, Sinabung, Sakurajima, Karymsky, Popocatepetl, Fuego, Pacaya, Rincon de la Vieja, Turrialba, Nevados de Chillan. Vanuatu volcano Manaro has quietened a little last few days. The evacuation of Aoba is apparently largely complete. Volcanic tremor at Agung has eased slightly last couple of days. The volcano is still red hot and a large eruption seems possible anytime. Many Latin America volcanoes are hot and likely to erupt. Volcanoes may dominate quakes during the period. The period is likely to be extended for several days as solar conditions build up. Update. 7 October 12.00am 6 October. East of Honshu 6.0 8.59pm Weak solar conditions arrived on cue and strengthened steadily during the day. The East of Honshu 6.0 is the first Pacific Mag 6 since 26 September...when volcanoes are hot, quakes are generally subdued. The forecast for the eruption of Popocateptl was made three hours too late...Murphy's Law. Volcano data for the eruption only came through tonight. Regardless, the outlook for more Latin American eruptions is justiifed. Steady solar conditions seem likely on 7 October. The forecast is mostly chasing eruptions. Agung is dangerously hot and rumbling heavily. Manaro is apparently steady but activity could increase as the forecast period progresses. Luckily, successful evacuations around both volcanoes are now complete. New Britain, Southern Philippines are added to Mag 6 risk locations. Update. 7 October 11.00pm 7 October. South Atlantic Ocean 5.3 South of Kermadecs 5.3 Inland Peru 5.2 Eruption Popocatepetl, Nevados de Chillan, Nevado del Ruiz, Sakurajima, Fuego. Eruptions everywhere during the period. Many other volcanoes have had their alert level raised. Quakes are subdued. Good location success with the largest quakes on 7 October despite low Magnitude. Vanuatu seismologists have lowered the alert level at Manaro. Bali seismologists continue to record huge tremor at Agung. Small emissions are puffing out at the summit. Mild solar conditions continued today, just above the threshold for quake activity. An expected increase in solar conditions tonight hasn't showed up. The period is extended to 8 October but may be the last day in the forecast period. Volcanoes seem likely to dominate quakes. Update. 8 October 11.00pm Eruption Sakurajima. Limited volcano data on a Sunday. Apparently volcanoes were quiet along with quakes. A slight solar pickup arrived soon after the last posting. Continuing very mild conditions may create a late isolated Mag 6 quake on 9 October. Gulf of California is higher risk. A late eruption is possible before the period closes. Agung seems so hot that it could erupt anytime, regardless of solar conditions. Summary. 6 October. East of Honshu 6.0 8.59pm 7 October. South Atlantic Ocean 5.3 South of Kermadecs 5.3 Inland Peru 5.2 Eruption Popocatepetl, Nevados de Chillan, Nevado del Ruiz, Sakurajima, Fuego. 8 October. Eruption Sakurajima. 9 October. Tonga 6.1 3.04am Balleny Islands 6.2 9.48am Rat Islands 6.6 11.34am Solar conditions arrived on cue along with the first Pacific Mag 6 for 10 days. Quakes eased on 7 October as volcanoes fired up. The Pacific was quiet on 8 October. The forecasted late isolated Mag 6 quake on 9 October turned into several late isolated quakes right at the end of the period. Three big Pacific quakes with good location success at Rat Islands and some good behind the scenes success. Volcanoes on 9 October were smoking hot in Indonesia and Latin America....but no big eruptions. When quakes are active, volcanoes tend to be quiet. Solar conditions dropped below the threshold for quakes to occur following the Rat Islands 6.6. Quakes may remain subdued until a new quake period begins early 12 October. South of Fiordland, Northern Sumatra may be higher risk locations then. More eruptions seem likely from 12 October and maybe sooner at Agung. A detailed forecast will be posted later. Summary Update. 10 October. Atacama 6.3 7.32pm 11 October. Bouvet Island 6.7 7.53am Eruption Suwanosejima, Sakurajima, Shiveluch, Sinabung. Quakes continued despite low solar conditions on 10-11 October. The end point of any long quake period is always hard to forecast. Late volcanic activity wasn't unexpected....eruptions typically come at the end or soon after quake periods. New Zealand remained below Mag 4 on 10-11 October. Aotearoa Earthquake and Volcano Forecast Service © 2013 - 2024 |
