Pacific Summary. 25 October 2017 - 29 October 2017

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Magnitude 6 risk areas are Northern Tonga, Bismarck Sea, Marianas Islands, Southern Sumatra, Celebes Sea, Southern Kuril Islands, Southern California, Ecuador, Central Peru, Tanzania, Hindu Kush.
Volcanic activity may increase.
Manaro, Tinakula, Agung, Sinabung, Shinmoedake, Ebeko, Turrialba, Popocatepetl.
The forecast period is likely to be extended.

Update. 26 October 12.30am
24 October.
West Banda Sea 6.7 11.47pm
The Banda Sea 6.7 arrived just before midnight as solar conditions arrived.
Perfect timing success but no location success.
Indonesia is hot, quake and volcanic activity seem likely especially later on as the period closes in 2-3 days.
Northern Sumatra, Northern Banda Sea, South of Fiji are added to Mag 6 risk areas.
Sesmicity is rising again at Agung as the period progresses.
Low level ash eruptions seem to be continuing at Tinakula and Manaro.
Volcanic activity tends to increase at the end of forecast periods.
Vanuatu authorities are apparently allowing some Aoba locals to return home.

Update. 26 October 11.00pm
26 October.
North Banda Sea 5.4 12.58am
North Marianas Islands 5.0 12.35am
Eruption Sinabung, Ebeko, Shiveluch.
Pacific quakes were generally quiet on 26 October.
The biggest were in or near to risk locations.
The period may be going volcanic.
Good location success from volcanoes.
Agung is quiet.
Solar conditions were steady today, a buildup is possible.
The buildup may continue to be volcanic.
Isolated quakes are possible on 27 October building to a peak on 29 October.

Update. 27 October 11.30pm
27 October.
Bismarck Sea 4.9 4.49pm
Southern Kuril Islands 4.9 10.38pm
Eruption Etna
Pacific quakes were subdued again on 27 October as they tend to be in the middle of long quake periods.
The biggest quakes were once again in risk locations but low magnitude.
The eruption of Etna comes after four months of quiet.
Forecasts for Etna aren't possible at the moment, seismologists at the volcano have blocked data.
Japanese volcano Shinmoedake is apparently hot but no eruption.
Data indicates a substantial buildup may be underway in the Western Pacific, Indonesia regions.
Isolated Mag 6 quakes are possible on 28 October.
Possibility Mag 7 Western Pacific, Indonesia.
Mag 7 confidence=low.

Update. 29 October 12.30pm
28 October.
West of Macquarie Island 5.3
29 October.
North Pole 6.0, 5.7, 5.7
Pacific quakes were under Mag 6 on 28 October.
29 October is possibly the last day of the forecast period and most likely for an isolated late big quake.
The North Pole 6.0, 5.7, 5.7 sequence has never been observed by this Service.
North Pole quakes are extremely rare.
Offshore Southern California has received several moderate quakes and one near San Francisco. This may be a slow slip event rather than a big quake risk..
No data for volcanoes.
Isolated Mag 6 quakes are possible on 29 October as the forecast period closes.
Papua, Atacama are added to Mag 6 risk locations.
Possibility Mag 7 Western Pacific, Indonesia.
Mag 7 confidence=low.

Summary.
24 October.
West Banda Sea 6.7 11.47pm
26 October.
North Banda Sea 5.4 12.58am
North Marianas Islands 5.0 12.35am
Eruption Sinabung, Ebeko, Shiveluch.
27 October.
Bismarck Sea 4.9 4.49pm
Southern Kuril Islands 4.9 10.38pm
Eruption Etna
28 October.
West of Macquarie Island 5.3
29 October.
North Pole 6.0, 5.7, 5.7
Eruption Sakurajima, Popocateptl, Manaro.
The forecast period started on time with the very deep Banda Sea 6.7 just before midnight.
Quakes eased but an update picked up the biggest following quake in the North Banda Sea.
The period then went volcanic with multiple eruptions including Etna which had been quiet for four months.
Data is no longer available for Etna so forecasts can't be made for the volcano.
Quakes were low magnitude on 27 October but the biggest were again in forecast locations.
The end of the period brought an increase in quakes.
The North Pole 6.0, 5.7, 5.7 triple quake is a rare event at this location for a single quake, let alone a triple.
The Western Pacific Mag 7 never came as solar conditions faded but the following quake period due on 2 November will be interesting.
Late eruptions on 29 October gave good location success but confusion with Manaro, data is unclear.

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