Aotearoa Earthquake and Volcano Forecast Service

Aotearoa Summary. 25 October 2017 - 29 October 2017

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Magnitude 4 risk areas are Upper Breaksea Sound, Te Anau, Hollyford River, Olivine Mountains, Arawhata River, Cascade River, North of St Arnaud, Culverden, Seaward Kaikouras, Tapuaenuku, Lower Clarence, Ward, Cape Campbell, Seddon, North of Cape Campbell, West of Wellington, Orongorongo Valley, Castlepoint, Wanganui, Eketahuna, Dannevirke, Waipukurau, Taihape, Gisborne, Tokomaru Bay, East Cape, Opotiki.
Volcanoes quiet.
The forecast period is likely to be extended.

Update. 26 October 12.00am
25 October.
North of Wanganui 3.5 12.00am
Local quakes were under Mag 4 on 25 October.
Kaikoura was quiet.
Solar conditions arrived on cue soon after the forecast was posted.
Steady solar conditions should persist for 2-3 days.
Isolated Mag 4 quakes are possible on 26 October.
Cook Strait is higher risk.

Update. 26 October 10.30pm
Local quakes were quiet on 26 October.
Solar quake driving conditions should persist for another 2-3 days.
Local quakes, if any, are likely to be isolated until the very end of the period when an uptick is possible.

Update. 27 October 11.30pm
Godley Head 3.3 5.29am
South of Kermadecs 4.6 7.34pm
Local quakes were busy but low magnitude on 27 October.
A Pacific buildup seems to be underway but quakes haven't come to New Zealand so far.
Isolated local quake activity is possible on 28 October.
Magnitudes and risk locations remain the same.
Magnitude risk may increase on 29 October as the forecast period closes.
East Cape is higher risk.

Update. 29 October 1.00pm
28 October.
Northeast of Tokomaru Bay 4.3 9.52am
South of Kermadecs 4.3 9.39pm
29 October.
East Cape 3.8 5.25am
Plenty of East Cape action to justify the forecast on 28-29 October.
The forecast period is closing but more isolated quake activity is possible on 29 October.
The Pacific forecast is chasing possible big equatorial quake action but New Zealand seems unlikely for a big quake.

Summary.
25 October.
North of Wanganui 3.5 12.00am
27 October.
Godley Head 3.3 5.29am
South of Kermadecs 4.6 7.34pm
28 October.
Northeast of Tokomaru Bay 4.3 9.52am
South of Kermadecs 4.3 9.39pm
29 October.
East Cape 3.8 5.25am
White Island 4.1, 3.5 11.24pm +swarm.
Quakes were slow coming during the period.
The 27 October Godley Head 3.3 was widely felt in Christchurch.
Christchurch quakes have largely moved on in 2017, the devastating 22 February 2011 Christchurch 6.3 is history.
Astute observers will notice that quakes tend to come early and late in long quake periods with subdued activity in the middle.
Excellent location success in East Cape but nothing for the rest of New Zealand, particularly following the big Kaikoura 5.4 last week.
White Island is still swarming late on 30 October but an eruption seems unlikely, the quakes are near to but not directly under the volcano.
A new quake period begins late 2 November and may be more active in the Southern Hemisphere.