Pacific Summary. 2 November 2017 - 7 November 2017

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Magnitude 6 risk areas are Kermadec Islands, South of Kermadec Islands, East of New Caledonia, Solomon Islands, Bismarck Sea, North Banda Sea, Molucca Sea, Southern Philippines, Sumbawa, West Java, North Sumatra, Marianas Islands, Kuril Islands, Central Peru, South Sandwich Islands, Hindu Kush.
Volcanic activity may increase.
Manaro, Agung, Sinabung, Suwanosejima, Sakurajima, Shiveluch, Fuego, Reventador.
The situation in the Southwest Pacific, Indonesia is very volatile.
The forecast may be modified depending on the strength of incoming solar conditions.

Update. 2 November 11.00pm
2 November.
East of New Caledonia 5.6 4.27pm
Eruption Shiveluch, Suwanosejima, Sinabung.
Quakes fell away today after several days of high action.
Eruptions continued as expected following such an qctive quake period.
Piton de la Fournaise is inflating.
No news for Agung....the volcano is quiet.
Solar conditions were weak today and have picked up a little tonight on cue but are very moderate.
Moderate conditions are expected on 3 November and may be enough to drive quakes.
Marianas Islands are higher risk.
Possibility Mag 4 quake Rome/Naples.

Update. 4 November 9.00pm
3 November.
Armatrice/Italy 3.7
Eruption Shiveluch.
4 November.
Offshore Mexico 5.7 12.52am
Pacific quakes were mostly subdued on 3-4 November.
The Southwest Pacific, Indonesia Mag 6 swarm is over.
Solar quake driving conditions are present but very mild.
Data indicates North America and possibly Peru/Ecuador could become active next days.
The forecast period is extended to 5 November.
Vancouver Island, Haida Gwai, Southern California, Baja California, Colima, Guerrero, Ecuador Coast, Inland Ecuador are added to Mag 6 risk areas.

Update. 5 November 10.30pm
3 November.
Armatrice/Italy 3.7
Eruption Shiveluch.
4 November.
Offshore Mexico 5.7 12.52am
The Tonga 6.8 came soon after an update was posted.
No location success.
The higher risk America locations were quiet.
Quakes picked up in New Caledonia soon after the Tonga quake... there is a link.
Tonga, Fiji, New Caledonia are all active on 5 November.
More volcano data may arrive later. Data is slow on a Sunday.
Solar conditions have now fallen just below the threshold for quakes but lunar influence is high.
The forecast period is extended to 6 November.
Pacific quakes are likely to be isolated.
New solar conditions are due to arrive late 7 November.

Summary.
2 November.
East of New Caledonia 5.6 4.27pm
Eruption Shiveluch, Suwanosejima, Sinabung.
3 November.
Armatrice/Italy 3.7
Eruption Shiveluch.
4 November.
Offshore Mexico 5.7 12.52am
5 November.
Tonga 6.8
Eruption Manaro, Popocatepetl, Fuego, Suwanosejima.
7 November.
Eruption Sinabung, Sakurajima.
The period went heavily volcanic following several days of heavy quake action.
No quake location success but great volcano location success.
Vanuatu authorities have allowed many locals to return to their villages on Aoba.
Hopefully this isn't premature given the heavy Pacific volcanic action during the period and continuing explosions at Manaro.
No news for Agung. The volcano is quiet. The volcano went quiet just before erupting in 1963. Thousands perished during the eruption.
Vulcanologists at Piton de la Fournaise have observed more inflation... an eruption could be close.


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