Aotearoa Summary. 8 November 2017 - 18 November 2017

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Magnitude 4 risk areas are Tauranga, Whakatane, White Island, Opotiki, East Cape, Urewera, Tokoroa, Taupo, Taumarunui, Hawkes Bay, Wanganui, Central Taranaki Bight, Northern Cook Strait, Southwest of Wellington, Eketahuna, Dannevirke, Waipukurau, Upper Hutt, Cape Campbell, Seaward Kaikouras, Culverden, Franz Josef, Milford Sound, George Sound.
Minor steam eruption possible at White Island later in the period.
The period is likely to be extended.

Update. 9 November 12.00am.
8 November.
Southwest of Wanganui 3.7 10.34am
North of East Cape 4.0 8.37pm
The Taranaki Bight 3.7 happened 8 minutes after the Papua New Guinea 6.5 but disappeared from the Geonet site soon after.
The seismologists may have seen it as a "ghost quake." You decide.
East Cape is increased to Mag 5 risk.
Solar quake driving conditions arrived on cue.
There is some indication of volcanic heating.
White Island activity may occur later in the period.
Little Ice Age solar conditions have driven some severe weather in New Zealand, powering up an approaching storm.
Isolated quakes are possible on 9 November, building to a peak on 13 November.

Update. 9 November 11.00pm
Local quakes were quiet on 9 November.
Quakes seem likely to remain isolated next two days, building up ahead of a peak on 13 November as the forecast period closes.
TV One news persists with the weather nonsense. A report about yesterdays Otago snow dump was followed by experts talking about sea warming, hot summers in 2100 etc.
World leading weatherman Piers Corbyn sells one month ahead forecasts for Northern Hemisphere and is warning of major winter weather in about a week.

Update. 11 November 12.00am
Local quakes were quiet on 10 November.
Tokomaru Bay is added to Mag 4 risk areas.
Solar conditions indicate a substantial buildup is underway.
A peak is possible on 13 November with quakes unwinding as the forecast period closes.
Local quakes seem likely to be subdued again on 11 November ahead of a 13 November release.
East Cape remains highest risk location.

Update. 11 November 12.30pm
10 November.
Northeast of East Cape 4.5 9.00pm
11 November.
Culverden 4.1 12.45am
East of White Island 4.4 8.20am
Northeast of East Cape 4.2
Quakes are building up ahead of the 13 November peak.
Minor steam eruption at White Island is possible.

Update. 12 November 10.00pm
North of Rolleston 3.4 3.47am
Feilding 4.1 6.03pm
Isolated Mag 4 activity continued on 12 November.
Christchurch has seen some minor quakes in addition to Rolleston.
The solar buildup underway since 8 November is probably complete and should be followed by an unwinding period from 13 November.
Quakes may increase in frequency and Magnitude on 13 November.
East Cape, Bay of Plenty seem to be hotspots.

Forecast Update. 13 November 7.00am
12 November.
West of Wellington 4.8 11.28pm
The forecast outlook for quakes to increase in Magnitude and frequency on 13 November has worked.
A quake release is underway.
Solar conditions are favourable for more quakes today.
Pacific quakes are generally quiet this morning but that situation could change over the next two days.
Kermadec Islands still seem to be a Pacific hotspot.
Possibility Mag 7 Pacific.
More info at Facebook/Roary Arbon.

Update. 13 November 7.50am
North of St Arnaud is added to Mag 4 risk areas.

Summary.
8 November.
Southwest of Wanganui 3.7 10.34am
North of East Cape 4.0 8.37pm
10 November.
Northeast of East Cape 4.5 9.00pm
11 November.
Culverden 4.1 12.45am
East of White Island 4.4 8.20am
Northeast of East Cape 4.2
12 November.
North of Rolleston 3.4 3.47am
Feilding 4.1 6.03pm
West of Wellington 4.8 11.28pm
15 November.
Upper Hutt 3.3 7.17am
Castlepoint 4.3 8.37pm
16 November.
Northeast of Seddon 4.7 4.03am
17 November.
Rolleston 4.2 2.52pm
Quakes began on cue in difficult to forecast Wanganui.
Steady quakes continued north of East Cape, moving south into Cook Strait as the 13 November quake peak arrived.
Great location success during the period will keep the sceptics quiet for a bit.
Quakes continued to unwind after 13 November, in very similar fashion to the Pacific forecast.
A forecast update wasn't offered 14-18 November due to poor internet coverage making observations impossible.
It is conceivable that Rolleston may have been added to Mag 4 risk areas, had a forecast been offered, following the 12 November North of Rolleston 3.4.
Regardless, this has been a very successful forecast period.

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