Pacific Summary. 8 November 2017 - 18 November 2017

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Magnitude 6 risk areas are Kermadec Islands, East of New Caledonia, Bougainville, Bismarck Sea, New Britain, Eastern Banda Sea, Northern Sumatra, Taiwan, Marianas Islands, Colima, Guerrero, Inland Ecuador, Inland Central Peru, Atacama, Vallenar, Western Himalayas.
Volcanic activity may increase.
Manaro, Agung, Sinabung, Piton de la Fournaise, Sakurajima, Suwanosejima, Shiveluch, Popocatepetl, Fuego, Reventador.
Mag 4 slow slip activity is possible in Southern California.
The forecast period is likely to be extended.

Update. 9 November 12.30am.
8 November.
East Papua New Guinea 6.5 10.26am
Eruption Manaro, Shiveluch.
Solar quake driving conditions arrived on cue.
Good location success in East Papua New Guinea.
The eruption of Manaro appears to be increasing.
No news for Bali volcano Agung.
Vulcanologists at Agung have not lowered the alert level for Agung, furthering the time over 100 000 evacuated locals have to spend away from home.
The volcano went quiet before a catastrophic eruption in 1963.
Climb to the top of the volcano at your peril.
Solar quake driving conditions are on a building trend.
Guadalcanal, Santa Cruz Islands, Southern Philippines, Fiji are added to Mag 6 risk areas.
Isolated Mag 6 quakes and eruptions are possible on 9 November building to a peak on 13 November.

Update. 9 November 11.00pm
9 November.
Agung 5.0, 3.7
Izu Islands 6.0 8.42pm
Eruption Shiveluch, Sinabung.
The Agung 5.0, 3.7 burnt off a few early morning hangovers at Kuta Beach.
Obviously major movement is occurring under the volcano.
The quakes give justification to the vulcanologists decision to keep clear of the volcano.
The Izu Islands 6.0 confirms isolated Mag 6 activity until the 13 November peak approaches.
Solar conditions are strong during the period and confirm a buildup.
Quake and/or volcanic action seems likely to increase in a couple of days as the forecast period closes.

Update. 11 November 12.00am
10 November.
Eruption Suwanosejima.
Pacific quakes and volcanoes were generally quiet on 10 November.
Flores Sea, Sumbawa, Pangai are added to Mag 6 risk areas.
Solar conditions were steady today, indicating a substantial buildup is underway.
A quake and volcano release still seems possible on 13 November.
Quake activity at Agung is increasing.

Update. 11 November 12.30pm
Valdivia, Pangai are added to Mag 6 risk areas.
Semeru is added to volcanoes.
Solar conditions today indicate a continuing buildup.
Java, Bali still seem to be hotspots for volcanic activity.

Update. 12 November 10.00pm
11 November.
Ascension Island/Atlantic Ocean 6.1 12.36pm
Eruption Sinabung, Popocatepetl, Suwanosejima.
Pacific quakes are quiet on 12 November.
No data for 12 November eruptions.
Solar conditions were weakening today.
Daily eruptions of Sinabung and Suwanosejima through the period have made the volcanoes easy forecast picks.
The eruption of Popocatepetl is a good result.
A quake and/or volcano release is possible on 13 November.
Quake frequency and Magnitude may increase.
Valdivia, Kermadec Islands seem to be quake hotspots.
No news for Agung but the vulcanologists there have maintained an evacuation order for over 100 000 people....they think an eruption is possible.

Update. 13 November 7.00am
Solar conditions are favourable for some Pacific action today.
Possibility Mag 7 Pacific.
Mag 7 confidence =low.
Kermadec Islands are higher risk.

Summary.
8 November.
East Papua New Guinea 6.5 10.26am
Eruption Manaro, Shiveluch.
9 November.
Agung 5.0, 3.7
Izu Islands 6.0 8.42pm
Eruption Shiveluch, Sinabung.
10 November.
Eruption Suwanosejima.
11 November.
Ascension Island/Atlantic Ocean 6.1 12.36pm
Eruption Sinabung, Popocatepetl, Suwanosejima.
13 November.
Iran/Iraq border 7.3 7.29am
East of Honshu 5.9 11.24am
Costa Rica 6.7 3.34pm
Eruption Sakurajima
15 November.
Guam 5.8
Eruption Ebeko
17 November.
New Caledonia 5.9, 5.5, 5.3
East of Honshu 5.8
Eruption Reventador
18 November.
Eastern Himalayas 6.3
Eruption Sinabung.
The forecast period started on cue with excellent location success in Eastern Papua New Guinea 6.5.
After that location success was zero although the 13 November peak gave perfect timing results.
Frequent big quakes during the period were mostly in remote locations except for Iraq.
The Iraq 7.3 has left 450 people dead and widespread devastation, whole towns collapsed.
Quakes gradually eased after 13 November but still some substantial action right through to the start of the 19-20 November forecast period.
Locations for 14-18 November quakes and eruptions matched the forecast map.
Plenty of eruptions during the period.
Manaro remains active, making it very difficult for evacuated locals who have returned to the island. Ash is everywhere.
The 9 November Agung 5.0 indicates clearly the volcano is very unsettled...there is a lot of movement going on down below.
Vulcanologists at Agung refuse to lower the alert level which makes good sense. The volcano could go off anytime with devastating results, just like in 1963.
The Mag 6 outlook for Ecuador is a mistake...the forecast is probably tracking volcanic activity at Reventador.
A forecast for 14-18 November wasn't offered due to poor internet coverage making observations impossible.

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