Aotearoa Summary Updated. 23 November 2017 - 27 November 2017

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Magnitude 5 risk area is North of White Island.
Magnitude 4 risk areas are Opotiki, East Cape, Hawkes Bay, Castlepoint, Southern Wairarapa, Upper Hutt, Southwest of Wanganui, South of Motueka, Northeast of Seddon, Cape Campbell, Seaward Kaikouras, Culverden, Milford Sound.
Quakes may be isolated on 23 November, building up late 24 November.
Volcanoes quiet.
Risk locations have been reduced, a new theory is being tested.
Forecast confidence=low.

Update. 23 November 10.30pm
Local quakes were quiet on 23 November.
An increase in quake frequency and magnitude is expected on 24 November as the forecast period closes.
Northern Hawkes Bay is added to Mag 5 risk areas.

Update. 25 November 12.00am
24 November.
Kawerau 3.6 2.19am
Kaikoura 4.0 8.11am
Northeast of East Cape 4.8 10.48pm
East Cape 4.1 10.49pm
The outlook for quakes to increase late 24 November has worked.
Quake locations are reasonably good so far.
Solar quake driving conditions indicate the period may run for at least another day.
The forecast period is extended to 25 November.
Quakes may be isolated but higher magnitude.

Update. 25 November 12.00pm
25 November.
North of East Cape 4.8 3.11am
Northeast of Opotiki 3.8 3.12am
The new theory being tested is working so far.
More quakes seem likely today, solar quake driving conditions are strong.
Mag 5 seems possible in Bay of Plenty.
Mag 2/3 activity is possible in Christchurch.

Update. 25 November 11.00pm
25 November.
Raukumara Ranges. 4.5 6.24pm
The outlook for Bay of Plenty Mag 5 quakes is nearly justified.
South of Kermadecs is Mag 6 risk on the Pacific forecast.
Quakes may increase again late 26 November.
Bay of Plenty is still the hotspot.
Geonet have announced Ruapehu is hot.

Update. 26 November 11.00pm
Local quakes were quiet on 26 November.
Solar conditions fell away sharply today.
Due to very volatile conditions and possible residual activity the forecast period is extended to 27 November, despite quiet solar conditions.
Northern Cook Strait is added to Mag 4 risk areas.
Quakes may be very isolated or absent on 27 November ahead of new solar conditions due on 28 November.
Geonet announced heating at Ruapehu yesterday but there isn't much data suggesting an eruption is imminent, despite the Pacific forecast period becoming heavily volcanic.

Summary.
24 November.
Kawerau 3.6 2.19am
Kaikoura 4.0 8.11am
Northeast of East Cape 4.8 10.48pm
East Cape 4.1 10.49pm
25 November.
North of East Cape 4.8 3.11am
Northeast of Opotiki 3.8 3.12am
Raukumara Ranges. 4.5 6.24pm
27 November.
Northern Cook Strait 4.1 2.31am
Cheviot 3.7 9.17pm
The reduction of North Island risk locations worked.
The addition of Northern Cook Strait late in the period worked.
Quakes are abundant in Bay of Plenty and further north.
The forecast period is extended to 28 November but risk locations have changed slightly so a new forecast map will be posted.

Summary Updated.
27 November.
Urewera 4.0 6.22am
North of East Cape 4.0 7.16am
Two quakes omitted from the map are now added.



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