Pacific Summary. 23 November 2017 - 27 November 2017

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Magnitude 6 risk locations are South of Kermadecs, Kermadec Islands, East of New Caledonia, Guadalcanal, Santa Cruz Islands, Bougainville, East Banda Sea, Molucca Sea, Southern Sumatra, Atacama, HIndu Kush.
Volcanic activity may increase.
Manaro, Agung, Sinabung, Sakurajima, Suwanosejima, Shiveluch, Reventador, Popocatepetl.
Isolated activity on 23 November is expected to increase late 24 November.

Update. 23 November 11.00pm
Pacific quakes were quiet on 23 November.
Eruptions at Sinabung and Manaro were weak.
Agung is blowing the odd puff of steam but otherwise quiet.
Quakes are expected to increase on 24 November as the forecast period closes.
Central Kuril Islands are added to Mag 6 risk areas.

Update. 25 November 12.00am
Pacific quakes were quiet on 24 November.
Volcanoes were active.
Eruptions at Popocatepetl, Fuego and Reventador.
Agung is quiet. The small ash eruption on 21 November hasn't been followed by any significant activity.
Late in any forecast period is always a more likely time for eruptions so more action at Agung is possible anytime.
More volcano news may come later.
The forecast period is extended to 25 November and may be extended further.
Kuril Islands are higher risk.

Update. 25 November 12.00pm
Offshore Oregon, Central Peru, Valparaiso are added to Mag 6 risk areas.

Update. 25 November.
Southern California, Honshu are added to Mag 6 risk areas.
The forecast period is extended to 26 November.
Quakes may increase late in the day.
Eruption Etna.
Forecasts for Etna are not possible at the moment. Seismologists at the volcano have blocked data.
Possibility Mag 7 Pacific.
Mag 7 confidence = low.

Update. 26 November 11.30pm
26 November.
North of Hunter Island 5.8 6.30am
Eruption Agung.
The period has become heavily volcanic.
The Hunter Island 5.8 is in a different location to the East of New Caledonia quake sequence.
Agung is throwing a heavy ash cloud and nighttime incandescence is visible, lava is at the surface.
Solar conditions fell away rapidly today.
New solar conditions are due on 28 November.
Due to volatile conditions, the possibility of residual activity and the short time until the next solar conditions arrive, the forecast is extended to 27 November.
Quakes and eruptions may be isolated or even absent on 27 November. Confidence is low.
Valparaiso is higher Mag 6 risk on 27 November.
Obviously Agung is higher risk for more activity on 27 November but probably not a major eruption.
The new solar conditions due on 28 November could see a stronger eruption at Agung.
How big any eruption at Agung could be is beyond the scope of any forecast from the Service.
Hopefully nothing like the massive Little Ice Age 1815 eruption of nearby Tambora.

Summary.
23 November.
Eruption Sinabung, Manaro.
25 November.
Eruptions Popocatepetl, Fuego, Reventador, Etna.
26 November.
North of Hunter Island 5.8 6.30am
Eruption Agung.
27 November.
New Britain 6.0
Eruption Agung, Sakurajima.
Quakes were sparse during the period.
The period was heavily volcanic.
Excellent location success at New Britain and all volcanoes.
Vulcanologists at Etna have annoyingly blocked data, forecasts aren't now available for the volcano.
The big news is Agung.
The lid has come off the giant Indonesian volcano.
A massive eruption seems unlikely next few days.
Tremor is still low and will need to build up substantially before any cataclysmic event occurs.
Cataclysmic eruptions in this area have occurred in recent times.
Samalas aka Rinjani on Lombok (next island to Bali) erupted massively in approximately 1257.
Tambora on Sumbawa (next island to Lombok) erupted massively with tsunamis and global weather changes in 1815...not long ago.
Krakatoa in the Sunda Strait (between Java and Sumatra) erupted massively in 1883 with tsunamis and global weather changes...that's very recent.
Agung sits right in the middle of some very explosive volcanoes.
Hopefully Agung just has a moderate eruption.
Vulcanologists at Agung say eruptions will build up over several weeks.





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