Pacific Summary. 5 December 2017 - 10 December 2017

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Magnitude 6 risk locations are South of Kermadec Islands, Kermadec Islands, Santa Cruz Islands, Guadalcanal, Northern Banda Sea, Molucca Sea, Taiwan, Kyushu, Eastern Honshu, Northwest of Vancouver Island, North of Valparaiso, South of Valdivia.
Volcanic activity may increase.
Manaro, Agung, Sinabung, Sakurajima, Karymsky, Fuego, Sierra Negra, Nevados de Chillan, Kuchinoerabujima, Piton de la Fournaise, Etna.
The period is likely to be extended.

Update. 6 December 4.00am
5 December.
East Timor 5.3 12.52am
Eruption Sakurajima, Shiveluch, Kliuchevskoi.
The eruption of Villarrica on 3 December came before this forecast was posted so is not posted onto the map. A huge flame blew out of the top. (See Facebook/Roary Arbon)
Agung is building up steadily.
Vulcanologists at Agung say the crater is rapidly filling with lava and an eruption is possible.
Pacific quakes were largely quiet.
The forecast period is extended to 6 December.
Solar conditions have steadily built on 6 December.
Strong lunar conditions are also present for a couple more days.
Eruptions and quakes may be isolated on 6 December, building to a peak on 7 December.
Villarrica is added to volcanoes. Another eruption may follow the 3 December flameout.

Update. 7 December 12.00am
6 December.
Pacific quakes were generally quiet on 6 December.
Volcanoes were quiet.
The period seems still to be volcanic.
Agung hardly gave off a puff of ash but the seismograph shows quakes and lava flowing inside the volcano.
Solar conditions are ticking along.
A quake and possible volcano increase is possible from 7 December.
The forecast period is likely to be extended.

Update. 8 December 12.00am
7 December.
Molucca Sea 5.5 5.06am
Nelson, New Zealand 5.0 9.30pm
Eruption Sinabung.
The biggest quake of the period so far has come at the Southern Molucca Sea.
Solar conditions were enough to drive isolated quake activity today.
An uptick in solar conditions may drive increasing quake and volcano activity on 8 December.
Kashmir is added to Mag 6 risk locations.
Agung is humming, lava has now filled half the crater but no eruptions.
A minor eruption seems possible at Agung on 8 December.

Update. 9 December 12.00am
8 December.
L'Esperance Rock/Kermadec Islands 6.2 3.09pm
Southwest of Guam 6.5, 5.5, 6.5
Eruption Ebeko, Sinabung, Fuego.
The uptick in solar and corresponding quake and volcano activity has arrived.
Big action north of New Zealand and remote Marianas Islands.
Volcanoes are going off with some good location successes.
Agung is heating up fast.
A minor ash eruption today along with harmonic tremor and increasingly large and frequent quakes at the Bali volcano.
Watch out for some much bigger action at Agung on 9 December.
Northern Philippines are added to Mag 6 risk locations.
Possibility Mag 7 Pacific.
The forecast period may be extended.

Summary.
5 December.
East Timor 5.3 12.52am
Eruption Sakurajima, Shiveluch, Kliuchevskoi.
7 December.
Molucca Sea 5.5 5.06am
Nelson, New Zealand 5.0 9.30pm
Eruption Sinabung.
8 December.
L'Esperance Rock/Kermadec Islands 6.2 3.09pm
Southwest of Guam 6.5, 5.5, 6.5
Eruption Ebeko, Sinabung, Fuego.
9 December.
Northern Tonga 5.7 12.42pm
Eruption Agung, Etna.
10 December.
Marianas Islands/Southwest of Guam 6.1 4.14am
The big Marianas Islands 6.5, 5.5, 6.5 on 8 December came with a solar weather pickup late 8 December. No location success, though.
The L'Esperance Rock 6.2 was closer to home.
Many minor volcanic eruptions during the later phase of the forecast period.
The forecast also offered regular updates on the eruption of Agung. See Facebook/Roary Arbon.
Quakes slowed on 9 December, following the big 8 December push.
Volcanoes, following quakes were active.
Minor eruptions at Agung and Etna.
Vulcanoloigsts estimate the crater of Agung has half filled with lava in the last few days or weeks.
Volcanoes are slowing on 10 December, solar conditions have faded fast today.
The tourists have all left Bali and locals are left to fight it out with the elements.
Locals are apparently returning to their small farms during the day but getting out at night.
Cheap holidays in Bali are offered.
Hot pyroclastic flows during the 1963 eruption caused thousands of deaths.
New solar conditions seem possible from late 11 November but may not be very strong.
Another minor eruption at Agung seems possible then.
A forecast will be posted later.












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