Aotearoa Earthquake and Volcano Forecast Service

Aotearoa Summary. 12 December 2017 - 16 December 2017

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Magnitude 4 risk locations are Te Anau, George Sound, South of St Arnaud, Northeast of Seddon, Blenheim, Culverden, Seaward Kaikouras, Orongorongo Valley, Southern Rimutakas, Castlepoint, East Cape, Opotiki, Southeast of Rotorua.
Volcanoes quiet.

Update. 12 December 11.00pm
12 December.
Offshore North Canterbury 4.2 1.02pm
West of George Sound 4.5 3.05pm
Solar weather arrived on cue and quakes have followed.
Moderate solar weather seems likely to continue next two days ahead of a peak on 15 December.
Isolated local quakes seem possible on 13 December.
Christchurch, Rolleston, Cascade River are added to Mag 4 risk locations.

Update. 14 December 12.30am
13 December.
Ranfurly 3.4 12.30pm
Local quakes were quiet...along with the rest of the Pacific.
Solar conditions fluctuated today but are slowly picking up ahead of a quake peak late 14 December or 15 December.
Isolated Mag 4 quakes are possible on 14 December.

Summary.
12 December.
Offshore North Canterbury 4.2 1.02pm
West of George Sound 4.5 3.05pm
13 December.
Ranfurly 3.4 12.30pm
14 December.
Oxford 3.8 2.22pm
This forecast had some good points.
The West of George Sound 4.5 was right in the zone and marked the return of Fiordland quakes after a long quiet spell.
The addition of Christchurch and Rolleston to risk locations resulted in a moderate quake at Oxford...not quite in the zone.
The forecasted 15 December quake peak never came although mild solar conditions persisted.
A new quake period begins early 18 December and may include more South Island action.