Pacific Summary. 12 December 2017 - 16 December 2017

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Magnitude 6 risk areas are Kermadec Islands, Northern Vanuatu, Santa Cruz Islands, Guadalcanal, Bougainville, South Banda Sea, Molucca Sea, Southern Philippines, Northern Philippines, Southwest of Guam, Southeastern Honshu, Atacama, Valdivia, Kashmir.
Volcanic activity may increase.
Agung, Sinabung, Kanlaon, Sierra Negra.
The eruption at Manaro has apparently slowed.

Update. 12 December 8.00am
Pangai/Tonga 5.6
Northern Vanuatu 5.6
Offshore Atacama 5.5
Solar conditions have arrived on cue but are very moderate.
Pacific quakes seem likely to be isolated and may not reach Mag 6 (or Mag 4 in New Zealand).
Agung is quiet.

Update. 12 December 10.30pm
Central Iran 5.9 9.43pm
The forecast period has started moderately, quakes are below Mag 6 but some excellent location success at Atacama and Vanuatu.
Agung has picked up slightly, harmonic tremor is increasing and occasional puffs of ash and steam.
Moderate solar conditions are expected again on 13 December.
Isolated quake activity seems possible.
Volcanoes may gather strength on 13 December.
A minor ash eruption seems possible at Agung.
Reventador is added to volcanoes.
The period is likely to be extended.
A peak is possible on 15 December.

Update. 13 December 9.30am
Papua New Guinea is added to Mag 6 risk locations.
Solar quake driving conditions are mild but steady.

Update. 14 December 12.00am
13 December.
Central Iran 6.0 10.41am
Eruption Sinabung.
Another big quake in Iran today.
The Pacific was quiet.
Solar quake driving conditions fluctuated today but are getting stronger tonight.
The possibility for a quake or volcano peak exists late 14 November or 15 November.
Agung is expanding with episodes of harmonic tremor as lava fills the crater.
An eruption at Agung seems possible late 14 November or 15 November.
Isolated Mag 6 activity is possible on 14 November.
Guam is added to Mag 6 risk locations.

12 December.
Pangai/Tonga 5.6
Northern Vanuatu 5.6
Offshore Atacama 5.5
Central Iran 5.9 9.43pm
13 December.
Central Iran 6.0 10.41am
Eruption Sinabung.
14 December.
Bouvet Island 6.5
16 December.
West Java 6.5 5.42am
The forecast period began on cue with excellent location success although quakes were under Mag 6.
Big quakes then became isolated under the influence of very mild quake driving conditions.
The forecast wasn't updated on 14/15 December. No observations were made.
The forecasted 15 December quake peak never materialised.
Mild solar quake driving conditions continued through 15 December.
Four big quakes during the period.
Iran received more big quakes in a different area to the 13 November Iran 7.3
The Java 6.5 was widely felt.
Bouvet Island 6.5 in the Atlantic Ocean near Antarctica is regarded as the remotest, most inhospitable island in the world...unless you are a penguin in which case its heaven.
Agung let off intermittent puffs of ash and steam during the period.
Lava is still rising into the crater.
Occasional Agung updates are posted on Facebook/Roary Arbon.
A new quake period may begin early 18 December.

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