Aotearoa Summary. 25 December 2017 - 27 December 2017

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Magnitude 4 risk locations are Hollyford River, Cascade River, Lower Arawhata River, Cheviot, Culverden, Kaikoura, Seaward Kaikouras, Cape Campbell, Northeast of Cape Campbell, Palliser Bay, Southern Rimutaka Ranges, Eketahuna, East Cape, Opotiki, Rotorua, Tokoroa.
Volcanoes quiet.

Update. 26 December 12.30pm
24 December.
Lower Hollyford River 3.8 8.42pm
25 December.
Northeast of Tauranga 3.6 3.09pm
Taumarunui 3.7 6.06pm
Note. The Hollyford 3.8 came as this forecast was being processed. Hollyford remains Mag 4 risk. This location was also on the previous forecast map.
The active equinoxal months of September/October/November are past and the quieter solstice months December/January/February are here.
Solar conditions have less effect on Earth during solstice and quake Magnitudes trend down.
This forecast period is a good example of solstice quake conditions.
Solar conditions are still ticking along quietly however so isolated Mag 4 quakes are possible on 26 December.

Update. 26 December 11.30pm
26 December.
Wellington/Oteranga Bay 3.8 7.17pm
The Oteranga Bay 3.8 was widely felt but apparently very strong in Upper Hutt...some good behind the scenes success there.
Solar conditions remained moderate today but are falling tonight and likely to go under the threshold for quakes to occur tomorrow.
Isolated Mag 4 quake activity is possible on 27 December as the forecast period closes.

Update. 27 December 2.30pm
27 December.
North of Lake Grassmere 3.9 12.40am
A second moderate quake has followed the Oteranga Bay 3.8.
Solar conditions remained steady overnight, weakening slightly today but still strong enough to drive more isolated activity.
New Mag 4 risk locations are Cook Strait/West of Makara, North of Makara, Upper Hutt.
These new locations haven't been added to the map.
The slower than expected weakening of solar conditions may result in the forecast period being extended.
An update will be posted tonight.

Update. 27 December. 11.30pm
Local quakes were quiet following the Lake Grassmere 3.9 just after midnight.
Solar conditions are right on the threshold for quakes to occur tonight and slowly fading.
Low possibility for a very late residual Mag 4 quake on 28 December.

Summary.
24 December.
Lower Hollyford River 3.8 8.42pm
25 December.
Northeast of Tauranga 3.6 3.09pm
Taumarunui 3.7 6.06pm
26 December.
Wellington/Oteranga Bay 3.8 7.17pm
27 December.
North of Lake Grassmere 3.9 12.40am
Moderate solar conditions arrived on cue.
The Hollyford 3.8 came as the forecast was being processed. The location was in the previous forecast. You decide.
Quakes never got to Mag 4 from the moderate solar drivers.
Good location success but not including Northern Cook Strait as a risk location was an obvious mistake...the location has been active for months and the feature of some earlier forecasts.
Regardless, the Oteranga Bay 3.8 was strongly felt in Wellington and other places as a single strong jolt.
Solar conditions fell very slowly from 28-30 December, driving Pacific equatorial quakes but the period in New Zealand had ended and quakes faded following the Lake Grassmere 3.9.
A moderate quake period may begin early 2 January.
A forecast will be posted later.

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