Pacific Summary. 25 December 2017 - 30 December 2017
Volcanic activity may increase. Agung, Sinabung, Ebeko, Kliuchevskoi, Bezymianny. The eruption of Manaro has probably ended. The forecast period may be extended. Update. 26 December 12.30pm 25 December. Southern Peru 5.0 8.33am Northern Tonga 5.1 6.33am Eruption Bagana. Moderate solar conditions arrived on cue. Biggest quakes gave reasonable quake location success in Peru but Magnitudes are low. No quakes in Bougainville but Bagana in the center of the island has gone into a typical low level eruption. Agung let off a small eruption on 23 December...just one day after Indonesian President Joko Widodo visited Bali to announce the volcano was safe and all the international tourists should be out there surfing...Joko the Joker. Regardless, the volcano still has regular episodes of harmonic tremor, lava is still rising. Mild solar conditions suggest the volcano is very unlikely to have a major eruption during the period but will keep puffing out ash and steam with the occasional bigger puff such as when President Widodo visited. Update. 26 December 11.00pm 26 December. Solomon Islands 5.3 6.46am Eruption Shiveluch. Pacific quakes were under Mag 6 on 26 December. Yet another Kamchatka Peninsula volcano goes off...Ebeko, Bezymianny, Kliuchevskoi and now Shiveluch. Moderate solar conditions continued today but with less effect during solstice than at equinox. Conditions are falling and likely to go below the threshold for quakes and eruptions to occur soon as the forecast period closes. Isolated quake and volcano activity, if any, is possible on 27 December. Update. 27 December 11.00pm 27 December. Eruption Sinabung. Pacific quakes were quiet on 27 December. Harmonic tremor at Agung continues but with very weak solar driving conditions an eruption seems very unlikely. Solar conditions are steadily fading. Summary. 25 December. Southern Peru 5.0 8.33am Northern Tonga 5.1 6.33am Eruption Bagana. 26 December. Solomon Islands 5.3 6.46am Eruption Shiveluch. 27 December. Eruption Sinabung. 28 December. Guam 5.5 12.58pm Southern Atacama 5.5 2.54pm 29 December. Molucca Sea 5.7 6.20am 30 December. South Pacific Ocean 5.7 10.20am New Britain 5.7 12.55pm The forecast period began on cue but very moderate quake driving conditions. Quakes responded but only to Mag 5 with good location success in South Peru. Moderate solar conditions persisted 26 December. Kamcahatka volcano Shiveluch added to the list of eruptions there last few days. Solar conditions were fading on 27 December. Eruptions tend to occur later on in forecast periods so the 27 December eruption of Sinabung wasn't a surprise. What surprised the locals was the size of the ash eruption and pyroclastic flows....quite big. Solar conditions gradually dipped to just under the quake threshold on 28 December, staying there until 30 December. The forecast period ended on 27 December but the solar threshold was set too high in the forecast and isolated Mag 5+ quakes rumbled on for two more days. Reasonable location success 28-30 December as quakes unwound. Overall the period had some successes given the very moderate solar conditions which tend to leave a weaker tectonic signal. The southward movement of a large polar vortex with accompanying record breaking snowfall and low temperatures in much of USA came with the period. Working with solar data, British astrophysicist and weatherman Piers Corbyn pulled off a stunner... his 30 day ahead USA forecast and map matched the 27 December storm perfectly. Extremely cold weather is forecasted to extend into southern tropical States Mississippi and Florida by New Year. This Service occasionally posts 30 day quake forecasts with good timing success but very limited location success. Little Ice Age weather, quake and eruption extremes are likely to get worse from 2030 as the sun goes through its 22 year magnetic Hale Cycle. A moderate quake period may begin early 2 January. A forecast will be posted later. Aotearoa Earthquake and Volcano Forecast Service © 2013 - 2024 |
