Aotearoa Summary. 9 January 2018 - 11 January 2018

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Mag 4 risk locations are Doubtful Sound, Lake Te Anau, Offshore Milford Sound, Lower Hollyford River, Culverden, Kaikoura, Cape Campbell, Northeast of Seddon, Palliser Bay, Rimutaka Ranges, Upper Hutt, Oteranga Bay, West of Makara, North of Makara, Western Taranaki Bight, Southwest of Taumarunui, Taumarunui, Tokoroa, Cambridge, Tauranga, Whakatane, Opotiki, Rotorua, East Cape.
Volcanoes quiet.
Quakes may be sluggish early in the period, an increase is possible on 11 January.
The period may be volcanic and therefore very mild in New Zealand.

Update. 9 January 10.30pm
9 January.
Southwest Awatere Valley 4.5 8.59am
The Awatere 4.5 was felt on the West Coast and Nelson.
Mild solar conditions arrived on cue, the Awatere 4.5 followed soon after.
Quakes were sluggish early in the period for the last couple of quake periods so the forecasters are happy to extract some early results from this forecast period. Tricky forecasting.
Solar conditions seem unlikely to drive big action during the period.
Quakes may be subdued on 10 January, picking up slightly 11 January.

Update. 11 January 2.00pm
10 January.
Northeast of East Cape 3.7 2.05pm
11 January.
St Arnaud 3.8 9.24am
Quakes dropped below Mag 4 on 10 January and early 11 January.
A slight solar pickup may occur late 11 January but confidence is low.
The forecast period is likely to close 12 January as solar conditions fade away.
A new mild quake period may begin late 13 January.

Summary.
9 January.
Southwest Awatere Valley 4.5 8.59am
10 January.
Northeast of East Cape 3.7 2.05pm
11 January.
St Arnaud 3.8 9.24am
Quakes and eruptions were in the Pacific during the period but quakes were only mild in New Zealand.
Limited location success in Awatere Valley but at least timing was good, the quake came right at the start of the period.
The forecast for a slight pickup late 11 January was justified with the arrival of the St Arnaud 3.8.
Not adding St Arnaud to risk locations was a forecasting mistake.
A new quake period begins 14 January.

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