Pacific Summary. 9 January 2018 - 12 January 2018

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Magnitude 6 risk locations are Kermadec Islands, Southern Tonga, Vanuatu, South Banda Sea, Myanmar, Offshore Oregon, Southern Ecuador, Atacama.
Volcanic activity may increase.
Manaro, Kadovar, Agung, Sinabung, Ebeko, Sakurajima, Kliuchevskoi, Reventador, Sierra Negra.
The period may be volcanic.
Quakes and eruptions may be sluggish early in the period, increasing on 11 January.
Any eruption at Agung seems likely to be minor.

Update. 9 January 10.00pm
Pacific quakes were quiet on 9 January.
Volcanoes were apparently quiet although more data may arrive later.
Mild solar quake driving conditions arrived on cue.
An isolated Mag 6 quake is possible 10 January.
Piton de la Fournaise is added to volcanoes.
Quake activity may increase again 11 January.
The period may be volcanic so eruptions may dominate later in the period over quakes.

Update. 11 January 2.30pm
9 January.
Eruption Shiveluch
10 January.
Southeast of Honshu 5.4 11.30am
Kermadec Islands 5.2 2.03pm
Caribbean Sea 7.6 3.51pm
Eruption Sakurajima
Pacific quakes were below Mag 6 on 10 January.
Caribbean quakes weren't though.
The biggest Caribbean quake in modern times and since the 7 September 2017 Mexico 8.1 has luckily caused no damage.
Weak solar conditions were present and a low confidence slight solar pickup is possible late on 11 January before fading away.
Costa Rica is added to Mag 6 risk locations.
A new mild quake period may begin late 13 January.

Update. 12 January 8.30am
11 January.
Iran/Iraq border 5.5, 5.4, 5.3, 5.2
12 January.
Myanmar 6.0, 5.3, 5.3, 5.3
North of Kermadecs 5.5
Costa Rica 5.0
The forecasted pickup has arrived this morning and likely to be the end of the forecast period.
Solar conditions are now fading fast.
Excellent location success in Myanmar, Kermadecs and Costa Rica makes some redemption for missing out on locating the biggest Caribbean quake in modern times.
The Costa Rica 5.0 is significant.
Quakes in New Zealand are quiet, the period has probably ended there.
A forecast for late 13 January will be posted later.

Summary.
9 January.
Eruption Shiveluch
10 January.
Southeast of Honshu 5.4 11.30am
Kermadec Islands 5.2 2.03pm
Caribbean Sea 7.6 3.51pm
Eruption Sakurajima
11 January.
Iran/Iraq border 5.5, 5.4, 5.3, 5.2
Eruption Sinabung, Agung, Ebeko.
12 January.
Myanmar 6.0, 5.3, 5.3, 5.3
North of Kermadecs 5.5
Costa Rica 5.0
This forecast worked well.
The period started on time but slowly, building into a strong volcanic spell.
Good volcano location success.
Quakes were also very active during the period.
The Caribbean 7.6 was the biggest Caribbean quake in modern history.
Luckily the quake was away from land so hardly made any news.
Good location success with other quakes.
Big weather events in California, the fire followed by a flood demonstrating the big weather fluctuations that come with the Little Ice Age.
A new forecast period begins 14 January.





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