Pacific Summary. 14 January 2018 - 18 January 2018

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Magnitude 6 risk locations are Kermadec Islands, South of Fiji, Northern Tonga, Makira, Guadalcanal, Bougainville, Molucca Sea, Southern Sumatra, Southeast of Japan, Izu Islands, Rat Islands, Dominica, Southern Peru, Atacama, South Sandwich Islands, Iran/Iraq Border.
Volcanic activity may increase.
Kadovar, Agung, Sinabung, Sakurajima, Ebeko, Kliuchevskoi, Fuego, Nevados de Chillan.
Note. The 12.24am 14 January Makira 5.9 occurred as this forecast was being processed. More quakes at Makira are possible during the period.
The period is likely to be extended.

Update. 14 January 12.00pm.
New Britain is added to Mag 6 risk locations.
Moderate but fluctuating solar conditions have arrived on cue.
Isolated Mag 6 quakes are possible.

Update. 14 January 10.00pm
Pacific quakes were quiet on 14 January.
Volcanoes were quiet although that may change as data comes in later.
Solar conditions fluctuated but were mostly switched off or weak despite some good auroras.
Solar conditions have the capacity to suddenly strengthen on 15 January.
Isolated Pacific quakes may just reach Mag 6.

Update. 14 January 10.30pm
Southern Peru 7.3 10.18pm
A very big quake in a moderately isolated coastline of Southern Peru.
No news yet but there is likely to be local damage and possibly a small tsunami.

Update. 15 January 8.30am
Offshore Oregon, Vancouver Island are added to Mag 6 risk locations.
Solar conditions continue to fluctuate today, isolated Pacific big quakes seem possible.
Philippines volcano Mayon is rapidly heating up, lava is at the vent.
No tsunami but major damage and a few lives lost following the Southern Peru 7.1

Update. 16 January .00am
14 January.
Eruption Sakurajima, Sinabung.
15 January.
Eruption Sinabung, Suwanosejima, Mayon, Kadovar.
Pacific quakes are ominously quiet following the 14 January Peru 7.1.
Plenty of low magnitude deep quakes, not a good sign.
Regardless, the period is very volcanic.
Western Pacific volcanoes are under pressure.
Philippines volcano Mayon has gone from steam eruptions to pyroclastic flows and lava at the surface in just a few days.
Double eruption at Sakurajima and nearby Suwanosejima.
Agung is puffing steam and light ash.
Kadovar is still erupting and nearby islands BlupBlup and Bam were also evacuated when hotsprings turned to steam geysers.
Solar conditions are fading as the end of the period approaches but still strong enough to drive isolated Mag 6 activity on 16 January.
Fiji, Northern Vanuatu, Santa Cruz Islands, Eastern Papua New Guinea are added to Mag 6 risk locations.

Update. 17 January 1.00am
15 January.
Eruption Agung.
Pacific quakes were quiet on 16 January.
The minor ash eruption at Agung continues the long slow eruption sequence. Good timing success.
Solar quake driving conditions fell slowly to just above the quake threshold.
A late isolated Pacific Mag 6 quake is possible on 17 January as the forecast period closes.
El Salvador is added to Mag 6 risk locations.
Volcanic activity usually comes late in a forecast period.
Eruptions seem likely to continue and even increase on 17 January.

Update. 17 January 12.00pm
17 January.
Nicaragua 5.9 4.03am
Fiji 5.9 8.57am
The addition of Fiji and El Salvador to Mag 6 risk locations is justified.
Solar quake driving conditions are fading today.

14 January.
Makira 5.9 12.24am
Southern Peru 7.1 10.18pm
Eruption Sakurajima, Sinabung.
15 January.
Eruption Sinabung, Suwanosejima, Mayon, Kadovar, Agung.
17 January.
Nicaragua 5.9 4.03am
Fiji 5.9 8.57am
Eruption Kliuchevskoi.
18 January.
Kermadec Islands 5.9 11,56am
Eruption Karymsky.
This forecast was a success from the moment of the Southern Peru 7.1.
The big quake created a lot of damage but luckily few casualties.
Other quakes never reached Mag 6 although great location success.
The residual Kermadecs 5.9 came a few hours after the period closed.
Western Pacific quakes were very quiet at the expense of volcanoes.
Many eruptions including new player Mayon in the Philippines.
The eruption of Agung continues at a low level.
This Service will be deployed to Agung in a few days and hopefully pictures can be posted and forecasts continued...the 30 January forecast will be an interesting one.
The deepening Little Ice Age has struck again in a forecast period, solar quake drivers are the same as solar weather drivers.
Southern USA is paralysed for the second time this month by extreme winter weather. UK, Europe, Mediterranean, Turkey, Russia, Siberia also hit by very heavy snow, winds, cold.
A new quake period begins early 21 January.

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